Avian flu updates page 5

[Martin]

page 4
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=157126&page=2&pp=40





July 15, 2005

Bird flu suspected in Indo deaths

By CHRIS BRUMMITT

JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) - A man and his two daughters have died of suspected bird flu in Indonesia, authorities said Friday, and initial investigations showed they had no contact with poultry, raising concerns of possible human-to-human transmission.

The victims, a 38-year-old man and his two girls, ages nine and one, would be the country's first human fatalities linked to the virus. They lived in a suburb of Jakarta and all died in the last week and a half, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said.

"These are suspected bird flu cases," Supari said at a news conference attended by officials from the World Health Organization. "We have sent specimens to Hong Kong to confirm the results, which will take seven to 10 days."

All were suspected of catching the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus, she said.

Hundreds of millions of birds have died or been culled across Asia in the last two years because of the bird flu virus, which also jumped to humans, killing 51 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.

Experts say most of the deaths so far have resulted from an animal passing the virus to a human.

But WHO has long cautioned that the virus could mutate to allow easy transmission from person to person, which could cause it to spread rapidly around the world.

But Dr. Georg Petersen, a WHO representative, said that while the three Indonesian family members had no known contact with poultry, a more thorough investigation could turn up evidence to the contrary.

"In other countries, this is often the case," he said.

Supari said the man's wife, his son and their two maids have shown no symptoms of the disease - which include fever and respiratory problems - and tests have been carried out on more than 300 people who were in contact with the family.

On Thursday, Indonesian authorities had denied that the deaths were linked to bird flu.

Sapari said this was because initial tests came out negative, and not because authorities wanted to cover up an outbreak.

"We tested, tested and tested again as is customary in this situation," she said.

Dr. Oloan Tampubolon, who oversaw the treatment of all three cases, said the surviving wife was having trouble accepting her loss.

"Yesterday, she asked me 'what is God's plan for my family?,"' he said. "I said you never know what God's plan is, but you and your son are still around so keep on going."

Last month, Indonesia reported its first human case of bird flu in a poultry worker, but the man did not develop symptoms and is currently healthy.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2005/06/16/pf-1090501.html

 

[Martin]

'No defence against bird flu'
14/07/2005 18:10 - (SA)


Johannesburg - Assurances from South Africa's Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang that South Africa has well advanced plans to contain a bird flu outbreak are not backed up by the facts, says official opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) spokesperson Diane Kohler-Barnard.

She said in a statement on Thursday: "In fact, although scientists say the adaptation of the virus to transmit from human to human could happen at any time, South Africa is without any medical defence against an outbreak."

Kohler-Barnard noted in response to a recent parliamentary question, the minister claimed that South Africa's bird flu preparedness plan was ?in line with the latest World Health Organisation's Global Influenza Preparedness Plan?.

Drug still not approved

"But the World Health Organisation plan includes the recommendation that 'Oseltamivir' be readily available for the treatment of suspected H5N1 respiratory infections, and the minister has so far refused to expedite the approval of this drug," she said.

Oseltamivir, sold as Tamiflu, is one of only two antiviral drugs known to work against the H5N1 strain of bird flu, and is the first choice for epidemic planners because it is easier to use than the alternative, Zanamivir.

Kohler-Barnard said: "It is being stockpiled by countries around the world in anticipation of a bird flu outbreak. Many European countries have ordered sufficient quantities of the drug to treat up to half their populations should the disease spread beyond Asia. The United States has set aside 2.3 million treatments, and is under pressure from health organisations to buy up more. The manufacturer has quadrupled production in the last two years but is unable to keep up with the demand.

Government lethargic

"In 2003 the Medicines Control Council (MCC) refused to register the drug because it had 'failed to comply with the clinical requirements for efficacy'. It appears that the MCC considered the efficacy of the drug only in relation to ordinary flu, not bird flu. Subsequent studies have shown the drug's effectiveness in treating bird flu.

"Concerns have previously been raised about the government's lethargy in preparing for Avian flu by South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases, which criticised the government earlier this year for devoting insufficient time and money towards preparations for a possible outbreak.

"Various private hospitals and clinics have also given up on official support and begun to create, adopt and follow their own coping procedures.
"The health minister has the power in terms of the Medicines and Related Substances Control Act to expedite the registration of a drug which she considers to be essential for national health. But she has so far failed to do this, although it has been done in many other countries," he said.



http://www.news24.com/News24/South_Africa/Politics/0,,2-7-12_1737664,00.html

 

[Martin]

Flying into Danger

[ SATURDAY, JULY 16, 2005 12:00:00 AM ]

Surf 'N' Earn -Sign innow

Paucity of bird flu vaccines could cause a pandemic

It's time for the world to be worried. If the avian influenza virus ever acquires the ability to pass easily from human to human, it could cause a pandemic in which most, if not all, people are at risk of infection, illness and death. There are signs that avian flu is not only becoming established in Asia — it's officially been declared endemic in Thailand — but several human cases have come up that cannot be linked merely to exposure to infected poultry. An even greater cause for alarm in recent months has been the chilling discovery that migratory birds such as wild geese in western China are being infected with a highly virulent sub-strain of the virus. People living beyond the current East Asian threshold should also be more vigilant for signs of the disease. That's because the range of these birds is enormous and some of them are known to move south to Myanmar and north over the Himalayas to India.
The only way to deal with influenza is prevention before onset using vaccines, and containment afterwards with anti-viral drugs. There's really no cure. Also, unlike the gradual changes that occur in influenza viruses appearing during normal flu outbreaks, a pandemic influenza virus is one representing a major and sudden shift in the structure of the virus that dramatically increases its ability to cause illness in a large proportion of the population. Compounding the problem is the acute vaccine shortage. The total global capacity for flu vaccine is only some 300 million doses at present and the ability to respond with the production of billions of doses that would be required during a pandemic is severely limited because some 90% of vaccines are produced in 10 countries that have 10% of the world's population.
According to Shigeru Omi, WHO's Western Pacific regional director, an additional $250 million is urgently needed over and above the assistance already provided by the international community to implement all the necessary strategies to prevent a pandemic.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1172331.cms

 

[Martin]

Over 122K Quail Die from H5N1 Bird Flu in Thailand

Recombinomics Commentary
July 15, 2005

In this week's OIE report Thailand described the death of over 122,000 quail in the Maung District of Supanburi. Almost 15,000 had died and the remainder culled. The H5N1 bird flu outbreak began on July 7 and was H5N1 confirmed on July 14. H5N1 was also found in native chickens and broilers in 3 other villages in the same district.

On July 10 Thailand had commented on the death of 10 fighting cocks and indicated H5N1 bird flu would be contained. There was no mention of the deaths of the quails in the same area, although massive die-offs were seen in six other provinces,

The large number of bird deaths in these villages suggest H5N1 is far from contained in Thailand and a new wave of human and bird H5N1 is beginning. Thailand has yet to report any 2005 human cases, although the Manila report indicated H5N1 in Thailand this year is similar to H5N1 in northern Vietnam, where most testing confirms that H5N1 is more easily transmitted human-to-human in northern Vietnam.

Monotoring of H5N1 in birds and humans in Asia remains scandalously poor.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07150507/H5N1_Quail_Thailand.html

 

[Martin]

Tests ordered as 1,000 layer chickens die


PIYAPORN WONGRUANG

Livestock officials yesterday collected blood and excrement samples of chickens around a farm in Muang district in Suphan Buri province, after more than 1,000 layer chickens there died. About 15,000 have been culled.

Nirundorn Aungtragoolsuk, director of Bureau of Disease Control and Veterinary Services, said the operation was part of bird flu control measures, although it has not yet been confirmed if the farm was infected with the virus.

In Suphan Buri last week indigenous chickens were confirmed as being infected with bird flu. The province is under watch by the Livestock Development Department.

Dr Nirundorn said the officials received a report on July 12 that more than 1,000 layer chickens raised on the farm had died, prompting it to order the culling of the rest.

The operation was completed on Thursday, and the officials yesterday collected samples from farms within a 5km radius to look for any traces of the virus. The farm would be under watch for 21 days. Movements of fowls within a 10 kilometre radius were also stopped.



http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/16Jul2005_news14.php

 

[Christian for Israel]

Monotoring of H5N1 in birds and humans in Asia remains scandalously poor.

just wait, it'll likely be worse here in the US.

 

[Kim99]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07150508/H5N1_Gangcha_Fatalities.html

Commentary
.
Details of H5N1 Bird Flu Fatalities in Gangcha County Qinghai

Recombinomics Commentary
July 15, 2005

>> Gangcha County dead two people

B1 just the outstanding 22 year old driver cause of death virulent flu caused the acute pneumonia to cause the respiratory system failure death
On B2 hits Doctor Cewang 39 year old the cause of death virulent flu to cause the acute pneumonia to cause the respiratory system failure death

The patient analyzes in B2 dead in vivo discovers H5N1L33, H5N1RK7, H5N1RW4 alternately forms the new synthesis virus, three kind of virus have the independence the existence, also has the synthesis the new virus, demonstrated between the virus mutually blends.
B1 in vivo had not discovered any H5N1 virus and its the variation virus, the dead infects the reason to be unclear

Infection way, digesting system infection, contact infection.

The B2 dead's domesticated fowl completely died, separates H5N1L33 in its center death chicken, the H5N1RW4 virus,

Tests personnel's material according to Qinghai other widely to have H5N1L33 in addition in the death spot lead goose, the attenuated nature H5N1RW4 virus, according to virus's distribution, two places death personnel contacts the marquis bird infection virus for its domesticated fowl to infect for the patient which has the communicable disease causes the viral variation infection to give the person, causes, by infection death.
In analysis B2 infection question extremely specially, because the B2 viral infection situation compares its center the birds and beasts chicken to be complex, does not remove after the on-the-spot investigation is the person infects chicken's possibility <<

The above machine translation of a boxun report details the death of two people from Gangcha Country inclding a 39 year-old physician. An earlier report lists various isolates from China, describing and naming those that only affect birds, humans, or unknown combinations. The report is quite detailed. Similarly the above report gives isolate names, location, and disease symptoms.

Multiple isolates are found and purified for additional testing. The detail suggest these are from official documents and are constant with last weeks Nature report describing widespread infections of H5N1 in southeastern provinces. The above report details deaths caused by additional isolates.

These isolates were not described in last week's Nature and Science report.

The isolates should be released to the scientific community, but instead China appears to be closing down information flow and trying to maintain control of a bird flu situation, that appears to be growing increasingly uncontrollable.
.

 

[JohnGaltfla]

Respirator reccomendations anyone?????????????

 

[Kim99]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHO Strengthens Pandemic Team


http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol309/issue5733/s-scope.shtml#309/5733/365b

The World Health Organization (WHO) is beefing up its efforts against influenza. Besides Margaret Chan, the new head of the Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department (Science, 8 July, p. 243), the agency is bringing on several new experts, including Keiji Fukuda, an epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia. Chan says she will seek more money from agencies such as the European Commission and the World Bank. Former flu program head Klaus Stöhr, long the public face of influenza, will continue to lead a group focusing on science but will no longer talk to the press, says Chan.

 

[Kim99]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bird Flu Death Confirmed In Indonesia

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/cgi-bin/news/newsbrief.plx?id=2242899960&fa=1

July 15, 2005 1:53 p.m. EST


Niladri Sekhar Nath - All Headline News Foreign Correspondant

Jakarta, Indonesia (AHN) – Indonesia’s health minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, says the Indonesian man who died of severe pneumonia tested positive for bird flu.

However, the man has no history of contact with sick fowl.

According to Supari, although Iwan Siswara Rifei had developed symptoms of bird flu, his two daughters, who also died, tested negative.

Supari says, "There's strong suspicion that the father was infected with bird flu but we still have doubt about the test results. So we have sent the samples to Hong Kong for a second opinion."

Supari says the results for all three family members could be announced in seven days.

She once again reiterated the man and his family had no history of contact with sick fowl or foreigners during the past four months.

Meanwhile, World Health Organization spokeswoman Sari Setiogi has declared the UN body is taking Rifei’s death as a "suspected case" of H5N1 infection.

They are awaiting test results.

The H5N1 type of bird flu chiefly spreads between animals. The virus has killed
more than 50 people in Southeast Asia since 2003.

From Dr. Niman:
"H5N1 has acheived ultimate transmissibility to humans. Now just the sight of "H5N1" causes neurological problems in writers of press releases related to H5N1. This pandemic has clearly taken its toll in Inodonesia and WHO.

Indonesia writers can look at a three member cluster and conclude only the middle member is positive. Similarly, WHO writers can get two positives and a negative from samples in northern Vietam and conclude that the negative is correct.

The neurological problems associated with H5N1 are clearly spreading worldwide."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Henry L Niman, PhD
Founder, President
Recombinomics, Inc
www.recombinomics.com

 

[Kim99]

http://www.effectmeasure.blogspot.com/
Friday, July 15, 2005
Bird flu: now only bad news is believable

The three Indonesian cases, initially downplayed as bird flu, are now looking more and more like H5N1. Moreover there is so far no history that would suggest a mode of transmission other than human to human and the spacing of cases suggests this as the most likely explanation.

Recombinomics reports the index case is a nine year old girl who became sick "last month" and that the father and one year old daughter were hospitalized on July 7 (I was not able to find the source of the time sequence Niman reports here). This strongly suggests that there is a gap between disease onset that strongly suggests person-to-person transmission (for an explanation of the underlying reasoning, see the Flu Wiki)

The Indonesian health minister initially downplayed the possibility this was a bird flu cluster. WHO sent a team there but also issued reassuring statements. Now the story has changed:

"We suspect it was caused by bird flu," [Indonesian Health Minister] Supari said. She said the first girl died several days ago and was already buried, but tests on the other girl and the father had been conducted.

"The second test showed there are signs this may be caused by avian influenza," Supari said.
She said authorities were concerned about possible human-to-human transmission as there was no evidence of contact with poultry.

"The first test showed negative for the H5N1 virus, then we conducted a second test, which showed signs of the H5N1 virus," said Supari.

She said more samples were being sent to a laboratory in Hong Kong for testing and results should be known within a week.

Authorities have taken blood samples of 315 people who had contact with the family. The mother of the two girls, aged one year and eight years old, was among those under observation, but so far she appeared healthy.
WHO is continuing to say that human-to-human spread was still not shown:

Ms Supari said she was concerned the three victims could have contracted the disease via human-to-human transmission, because they had no known contact with poultry.

But World Health Organization representative Georg Petersen said that in his experience, a more thorough investigation could turn up evidence to the contrary.

"In other countries, this is often the case," he told the Associated Press. So far humans have only contracted bird flu after coming into contact with infected animals. (BBC)
Technically, this is correct. Technically. What it reveals is WHO's unwillingness to look the facts in the face and admit the more likely possibility (and the most dire one), that this virus has finally made the long predicted transition to the ability to spread human-to-human, of unknown degree. Those are the betting odds today.

WHO has now put itself in the unfortunate position that the only news that will be generally believable from now on will be bad news (whether that news is correct or not).

posted by Revere at 10:33 AM Comments (3) |

 

[Martin]

Human H5N1 Bird Flu Infections in China in 2004 and 2005

Recombinomics Commentary
July 15, 2005

H5N1 RK7

The sampling is Qinghai, this is in the present known birds and beasts flu the might biggest one kind, compared with is he which is special is by the birds and beasts class infection for the humanity and between the humanity disseminates, compared with is the person which is special which infects is been unable to return again the infection birds and beasts class, speaks its might big reason is his diagnosis unusual complex, moreover is not suitably discovered, the ambush time is shorter, the death reason completely is because the symptom question diagnosis fault creates the litigant dies.

The above is the machine translation of the description of the H5N1 strain causing fatalities in Qinghai. A brief summary of the machine translation follows. The original story has more detail, but is difficult to interpret using a machine translated text.

The report describes 10 strains of H5N1 isolated in China in 2004 and 2005. These represent 9 variants of H5N1 and they are placed into three categories. One is only known to infect birds, one that can also infect humans (R series), and one group that is still being characterized (X series).

17B was isolated in Hunan in July, 2004. It is carried asymptomatically in domestic birds. In November, 2004 another isolate 19A was isolated the Shantou. This isolate is probably similar to the 2005 Shantou isolates described in the Nature paper. A third isolate 19A is resistant to the vaccine. These three isolates do not infect humans.

RW12 is a strain initially isolated in Xinjiang in 2004. It is like some of the isolates in northern Vietnam and only produces mild disease in humans. The virus was subsequently found in Guangdong and Zhanjiang. The 2005 version of the virus is RW4.

The virus that causes lethal infections in humans is RK7. It produces complex symptoms and has a short incubation period. It is frequently fatal.

Three other isolates have not been characterized. X1 is a 2004 human isolate. X2 is from Qinghai. X3 is from Qinghai, Hunan, and Ningxia. These uncharacterized H5N1 may be found in association with other H5N1's.

The above descriptions would indicate that there are unreported human H5N1 infections in China, but few produce lethal infections other than the Qinghai isolates. The Qinghai isolates are of concern. The boxun reports describe two clusters suggesting the virus can be transmitted and is lethal. These latest reports do not give numbers infected or dead, they just describe a cluster of two and a cluster of four. Symptoms are both gastrointestinal and respiratory and all six patients die.

The reports have not been verified, but boxun reports on the birds at Qinghai Lake have now been confirmed with reports by WHO and Hong Kong. There have been no reported human cases in China, but the 2005 isolates in southeastern China have not been reported, but sequences have now been published, strongly suggesting that the infections have not been reported.

The widespread infections by H5N1 in China are supported by the boxun report, except the report describes mild human cases in 2004 and 2005 as well as fatal cases in Qinghai in 2005. The detection of multiple strains in individuals is cause for concern regarding more recombination as well as the catastrophic spread of lethal human H5N1 by migratory birds.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07150509/H5N1_Human_Strains_China.html

 

[Kim99]

This is a translated version of a report from Boxun. Boxun is the website that first reported on SARS even though the Chinese government was denying it. They are now reporting widespread bird flu in parts of China, even though the Chinese government is denying it.:

"Since the first appearance of bird flu, the chinese government has made some detailed classification for the mutated virus. Contrary to most speculations, related government departments have taken necessary measures to contain and counter the spreading of the virus. However, the chinese government is worried about the anti-communist movement may be able to put more pressure to the control of the communist government at this moment.

Since 2004, the government has classified most infected or death cases caused by the virus, supplemented with the information gathered in qinghai. For non-fatal infectious diseases, the chinese government targeted at controlling information and quarantine measures. For infectious diseases which are fatal to human, the focus of the government is whether the virus can be converted to a biological weapon or not. The military will first research on the controllability of the virus. In some occasions, the virus may even be released to the public in order to test the effectiveness of the vaccines and preventive measures.

So far, the bird-flu virus strains that are fatal to human is classified into 7 different categories. The H5N1 is the original version while others are mutated from the original H5N1.

1. H5N1
This is the one that most people know about, only effective to birds, especially chickens and ducks. Unable to infect and pose any threat to human.

2. H5N1 7B
This is first discovered in hunan in June 2004, also spread through domestic birds. However, unlike the original version, the bird itself is only the carrier of the virus, without any symptoms even after being infected. Human can be infected if consumed infected poultry products. Symptoms of human include allergic reactions, reduction of immunity, easier to be infected by other influenza and sudden seizure or epilepsy of heart muscles. Infected birds will have a drastic increase in appetite without obvious weight increase. The virus infects only through physical contact.

3. H5N1 9A
This is discovered in shantou in November 2004, infection is done through physical contact. Not much difference from H5N1. However, the faeces of the infected birds seem to be infectious to fish. In some part of china, faeces from domestic birds and pigs are dumped to fish ponds. It seems like fish infected by the virus is more aggressive and becomes somewhat toxic. Bones of the fish are softened but reason is still unknown. The result was found by a laboratory.

4. H5N1 L33
This is a mutated version of H5N1 discovered in 2004. So far no vaccine or medication is effective against this virus, other symptoms remain the same as the original version. This virus can survive within insects under certain temperature and humidity. However, there is still no reported case of infection to human. So far the only measure to deal with it is to incarnate the infected items.

5. H5N1 R12
This is found in xinjiang and guangdong areas. It is spread among poultry and can infect human. However, only minor flu symptoms will be found in human. Non-fatal to both poultry and human, it can be treated with ordinary medications. It is under the R series, where R denotes “red”, indicating that human can be infected by it.

6. H5N1 RW4
This is discovered in 2004 and 2005. Human can be infected by in from poultry, and can be fatal to human if not handled properly. Minor h2h ability is found in infected patients. This virus is extremely dangerous to poultry, with a 100% death rate. The incubation period ranges from 2 to 60 days. Eggs of the infected poultry also contain another type virus derived from the H5N1 RW4. Currently, veterinary medications are found to be useless in infected poultry. However, medication used by human, in small dose, can suppress and eliminate the virus in infected birds.

7. H5N1 RK7
First sampled in Qinghai, this is the most powerful strain found so far. This can be transmitted from poultry to human and from human to human. However, this strain of virus is unable to transmit from human to poultry. The diagnosis of this virus is extremely complicated. Incubation period is short and causes of deaths are mainly mis-diagnosis.

There are still 3 strains of H5N1 under research; they are named as the X series.

8. H5N1 X1
Sampled in 2004 from human influenza virus, can infect poultry,

9. H5N1 X2
Sampled in qinghai, continuously mutating, a derivative of H5N1 RW4, current medications are not too effective against this strain.

10. H5N1 X3
Sampled in qinghai, hunan and ningxia, recombination occurred after patients infected by H5N1 RK7 as well as other infectious diseases. This can be transmitted from poultry to human and human to poultry.

There is currently no further information available regarding these 3 types of virus. With H5N1 RW4, H5N1 RK7, these 3 strains are tightly contained from the media by the chinese government. These 3 strains are believed to be R series as well.

Mutated strains from H5N1 have become very obvious (?), especially in diagnosis, which is still not that reliable. The current active strains in china are undergoing faster recombinations due to cross infection. The time for completing recombination has decreased from 7 months (in 2003) to 4 months. The mutation of the virus varies in different geographical areas."

 

[Martin]

Conference to focus on combating bioterrorism
Fraunhofer USA hosts forum to discuss vaccines for viruses spread by terrorists
By RICHARD SINE / The News Journal
07/16/2005Scientists at a Newark-based institute are developing a new way of making vaccines that could help the world respond quickly to bioterrorism or a global flu pandemic.

Fraunhofer USA is hosting an invitation-only conference in Wilmington Monday that will bring together more than 100 scientists and health officials to discuss how to prepare for and react to so-called "biothreats" -- that is, dangerous viruses spread by nature or by terrorists.

"Regulatory agencies and industry recognize the need for new technologies, but they need to meet together," said Vidadi Yusibov, director of Fraunhofer USA's Center for Molecular Biotechnology.

The biotech industry in Delaware and elsewhere is trying to win business from the federal government as it seeks to prevent or respond to a terrorist release of anthrax or smallpox. Meanwhile, proliferation of a virulent avian flu strain in Southeast Asia has led health authorities to urge quick action to prevent a global flu pandemic.

Fraunhofer is working to develop a vaccine that would be grown in plants, opening the door for safer, cheaper, more reliable vaccine manufacturing.

Currently, flu vaccines are made by growing the flu virus in chicken eggs produced in controlled environments. The process is slow and vulnerable to contamination, Yusibov said.

"They still can't make enough to provide the whole world with the vaccine," he said.

With the new technology, a genetically modified plant virus is put into a plant. The virus causes the plant to make new proteins known as antigens. When the plant is eaten, the body reacts to the proteins as if infected and creates antibodies.

Unlike current vaccines, the new vaccine would not harbor a live virus. Thus, it would not require refrigeration and could be easily transported and stored. It also would be less likely to cause the side effects that live viruses can produce, its developers say.

Fraunhofer has successfully completed animal tests on an oral anthrax vaccine made with plants and will soon ask federal authorities to allow tests with human volunteers.

Dr. Geoffrey Schild, former chair of a World Health Organization panel on influenza, said the Fraunhofer effort is "innovative and interesting." But he said there is no guarantee it will work.

Schild is now chief science officer of Integrated BioPharma, a Kennett Square, Pa.-based firm that has teamed up with Fraunhofer in the research effort.

The biggest challenge in developing the new plant-based vaccines is in creating antigens that can cause immune reactions in people with widely varying immune systems, Yusibov said.

Another potential slowdown is that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration must approve not only the vaccine's safety and effectiveness, but also the new manufacturing processes for the vaccine, he said.

Yusibov estimates it will be at least five years before Fraunhofer's vaccine is publicly available.

Meanwhile, other scientists also are working on plant-based vaccines. Dow AgroSciences, based in Indianapolis, predicts federal approval next year of a plant-based vaccine for livestock. A test of a potato-derived hepatitis B vaccine developed at Arizona State University also has shown promising results.

"We've been using old technology to make both human and animal vaccines," said Butch Mercer, global business leader for animal health and food safety at Dow AgroSciences. "We're moving into a whole new world of science to provide better, safer and more efficacious products."


http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050716/BUSINESS/507160322/1003

 

[Kim99]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07170502/H5N1_Catastrophic_Pandemic.html

Commentary
.
Evolving Catastrophic H5N1 Bird Flu Pandemic in 2005

Recombinomics Commentary
July 17, 2005

The latest boxun report describes 10 strains of H5N1 circulating in China. Eight of the ten have some evidence for human infections, but there is no direct independent confirmation of the data. The data suggest that the 2005 pandemic is well underway and a wide range of catastrophic events will continue to make news. The report also suggests H5N1 in China is diverse and evolving, expanding a trend that will likely culminate in an event that may make the 1918 flu pandemic look tame.

Although the specifics of the report are not directly confirmed by third parties, the actions of China and the sequences of the H5N1 emerging from China, strongly support the descriptions of the strains in the boxun reports.

China's statements and actions support many of the details in the boxun story. When H5N1 exploded throughout Asia, and affected countries adjacent to China, the role of China as a breeding grounds for H5N1 was suspected. There had been many reports of H5N1 in Hong Kong and most of the poultry in Hong Kong's live markets comes from China. The H5N1 deaths of members of a Hong Kong family that had visited Fujian province in 2003 were a signal that China had H5N1 that could infect humans.

In 2004, when H5N1 infections were being reported throughout Asia, China also admitted to having H5N1 outbreaks in poultry. Only Vietnam and Thailand reported human cases, although most of the H5N1 detected in 2004 was the Z genotype, and more closely related to other Z genotype isolates than the 2003 isolates from the family that had visited Fujian province.

In 2005 the reported outbreaks had taken on a somewhat different distribution, but evidence began to mount suggesting that the differences were more related to reporting than actual changes. Human cases were limited to Vietnam and Cambodia, but recent sequence data on 2005 isolates demonstrates considerable genetic diversity, yet there were human cases in the north and south. In the north there were two versions of H5N1 that lacked an ARG residue in the HA cleavage site. This missing ARG had been seen earlier in isolates from China. In the Manila report some additional information was presented. The isolates in Vietnam were segregating into two groups. Northern Vietnam isolates resembled 2005 isolates from Thailand, while southern Vietnam isolates were more like isolates from Cambodia.

In 2005 Cambodia reported human H5N1 cases, but Thailand did not. The lack of human cases in Thailand was suspect because of numerous H5N1 outbreaks in birds in 2005, as well as human and wild cat outbreaks in 2004 in Thailand. Similarly, the lack of human cases in Indonesia became suspect when H5N1 antibodies were found in a poultry worker and H5N1 virus was found in swine. Now there appears to be human-to-human transmission of fatal H5N1 in Indonesia.

The 2005 sequences in Indonesia and Vietnam have similarities with 2004 Yunnan H5N1 sequences. Although China has not reported any H5N1 outbreaks in 2005 prior to the May outbreak in Qinghai, the Nature paper described 2005 H5N1 isolates from four provinces in China, Fujian, Hunan, Yunnan. And Guangdong. The 2005 isolates from Hunan, Yunnan, and Guangdong (Shantou), were similar to isolates from 2003 or 2004.

Thus, as the number of diverse H5N1 isolates from people in northern and southern Vietnam as well as Cambodia and Indonesia increase, the likelihood of human cases in China also increases, yet China has never reported a human H5N1 case.

The boxun report describes eight strains of H5N1 than have been linked to human cases. The strain of greatest virulence, RK7, appears to be the same as the eight isolates described in Nature and Science. It is quite lethal in experimental chickens and mice and boxun report indicating it is lethal in humans. Supporting the human lethality is the present of the PB2 polymorphism E627K, which is associated with H5N1 virulence in mammals.

E627K is found in all human isolates, but the only H5N1 isolates with the change are from mammals that had a poor outcome. Prior to Qinghai Lake, all bird H5N1 isolates had the E at position 627. Thus, finding E627K in all 8 Qinghai isolates is unprecedented, as is the large number of dead migratory birds with H5N1.

The boxun reports are indirectly supported by the Nature and Science reports, as well as sequences in human cases in countries adjacent to China. There is much more reason to doubt statements by China on the lack of human infections in China or statement by WHO on the lack of mild H5N1 cases in northern Vietnam.

The data in the boxun report is considerably more believable and the data suggests a catastrophic pandemic will expand, as birds migrate away from Qinghi Lake and summer nesting sites and return to Europe, India, and southeast Asia to spread a variety of new and old H5N1 strains capable of causing lethal infections in humans and a variety of other species.

 

[Kim99]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roche Carolina nabs contract to produce avian flu drug

By ANDY COLE
Morning News
Saturday, July 16, 2005


FLORENCE - Roche Carolina will have a part in a $58 million Department of Defense contract to produce its anti-flu drug Tamiflu.
The contract was awarded to Roche Laboratories last week to produce Oseltamivir Phosphate (Tamiflu) capsules, which fight flu symptoms and is indicated for protection against avian influenza. Health professionals around the world have been increasingly worried about the possibility of an outbreak of avian flu, and the Department of Defense is ordering Tamiflu capsules to protect military personnel.

The final active ingredient of Tamiflu is made in Florence.

"At the moment, we're the only site in the U.S. registered with the FDA to manufacture the final active ingredient in Tamiflu," said Dr. Frank Cox, vice president and general manager for Roche Carolina.

Tamiflu is approved for treatment of type A and B influenza in patients 1 year old and older and for prevention of influenza in adults and adolescents 13 years and older. It is not indicated specifically for protection against avian flu, but experts, including the World Health Organization, say that Tamiflu could play a critical role in managing an outbreak. Tamiflu is the only antiviral drug known to be effective against avian influenza.

"To be most effective it has to be administered within 48 hours of onset," Cox said.

The drug has been shown to be effective in preventing people from catching other influenzas, but it isn't approved as a prophylactic drug for avian flu Cox said.

"The challenge of avian flu is that there is so little know about it," Cox said.

One reason there's so little known about the virus is that its outbreaks have been in remote parts of the world. Vietnam, Cambodia and China have all seen outbreaks. Cases of avian flu have been increasing in Asia, and health care professionals around the world are keeping an eye on the outbreak because of the potential to become a pandemic, spreading around the world. According to the World Health Organization, the current outbreak of the avian flu has seen 55 people die, all of them in Southeast Asia. The aggressive strain of avian influenza, Virus H5N1, was the cause of the illness and death in humans. The virus has also killed a large number of

animals.

Three years ago an outbreak of avian flu in poultry in South Asia led to the slaughter of millions of chickens, and U.S. officials have seen different strains of the virus in poultry farms here.

The disease not only poses a health risk, but it's also an economic threat. The avian influenza crisis in Asia has already caused more than $10 billion dollars in damage in the economies of the most seriously affected countries, but this is just the tip of the iceberg compared with the possible global economic consequences of a human influenza pandemic according to a study, Thinking Ahead: The Business Significance of an Avian Influenza Pandemic, released by Bio Economic Research Associates.

"According to the quantitative measures we developed for assigning relative economic risk exposure to infectious disease outbreaks for countries in Asia, Hong Kong and Singapore are especially vulnerable to the initial economic shock waves that would ensue from a pandemic," said James Newcomb, managing director and principal author of the bio-era report. Bio Economic Research Associates is a private research and advisory firm.

"The secondary impacts on other countries, especially China, could have far-reaching impacts for economies around the world, including the U.S.," Newcomb added.

In the scheme of things, Roche's $58 million contract with the Defense Department is small. According to the Bio Economic Research report released in March, governments around the world have recently made commitments totaling an estimated $1.4 billion to stockpile Tamiflu.

"We have orders from 25 countries around the world, and letters of intent from five other countries," said Terry Hurley, director of public affairs for Roche in Nutley, N.J.

"The U.K. has ordered 14.6 million treatment courses, and France has ordered 13 million," Hurley said. "The experts say that it's not a matter of if there's an outbreak, it's a matter of when, and we want to be ready for that."

To prepare for a potential flood of orders for Tamiflu, Roche has been gearing up for an increase in production capacity.

"We doubled production capacity from 2003 to 2004, and we're doubling capacity again this year," Hurley said.

This story can be found at: http://www.morningnewsonline.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=FMN/MGArticle/FMN_BasicArti cle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031783889410&path=!business
__________________

 

[Martin]

The Next 9/11
Posted by mrmeangenes on Sunday July 17, 2005 at 9:01 am MST [ Send Story to Friend ]
Link to story: http//mrmeangenesnews.blogspot.com

THE NEXT 9/11

The next “9/11” is apt to be something most people don’t want to hear about,read about,or even think about.

I’m talking about biowarfare; and, unless I miss my guess,it is being studied-using human guinea pigs-by the People’s Liberation Army of China.

They have succeeded in identifying a strain of “bird flu” , called H5N –RK7,that is extremely lethal to birds and to humans. ( It is just one of 10 strains they have been studying – via “controlled releases” into their own population ; and they are still looking for the “ideal strain”.)

The goals seem to be threefold:

1. Develop a strain that will be lethal to humans and livestock, that can be spread by migratory birds.

2. Refine this strain so the birds selected can withstand it for 60 days or so: living just long enough to migrate;

3. Develop vaccines in secret that will protect their population,and that of certain useful “partner” nations ; eg: Cuba,Venezuela, Angola. ( The “discovery” can be announced after the world falls into panic, and an exceptionally high price can be charged – as China will be “in the catbird seat”.)



This requires enormous experience in bio-technology: one of the items China “bought” when it signed extensive trade agreements with Cuba in November of 2004.

http://www.plenglish.com.mx/article.asp?ID={CA3DBBE2-4A6A-4628-9988-59744DB0CF46}&language=EN

We may be more familiar with Cuban cigars, but the fact is Cuba is one of the leading nations in the world in biotechnology – especially the arcane world of Recombinant DNA – which happens to be just what is needed when making viral superweapons.

It is,perhaps, not odd this trade agreement calls for the Chinese to furnish teachers-so the Cuban people may learn Chinese .


The next 9/11 might arrive on our shores in the dead of night-carried on the wings of migratory birds we are all accustomed to, and spread slowly,slowly across the land. By the time we grasp the fact there is a killer flu abroad,we will be unable to trace it to its source – and too busy burying our dead to care.

That is the reality of biowarfare.


I have deliberately left out the name of my “link” to this information. He is one of America’s foremost virologists,and is associated with a major teaching facility. Although he has published certain information on this matter,he is certainly more cautious than I in drawing conclusions.

Were I to associate his name with my opinions, there are radicals in the university culture-and elsewhere,who would go out of their way to smear his reputation and standing-though he is a fairly liberal man.


http://www.phxnews.com/fullstory.php?article=23268

 

[Kim99]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Federal proposal sets priorities for who would receive flu vaccine in an epidemic

> By DAVID WAHLBERG
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
> Published on: 07/18/05
Front-line health care workers and vaccine and drug plant employees would get scarce vaccine first if a worldwide flu outbreak struck the United States, under a nearly completed draft federal plan.

Patients at highest risk for flu, including those over age 65 with chronic medical conditions such as diabetes or heart disease, would be immunized next, followed by pregnant women and other groups.

The long-anticipated prioritization of who would get the vaccine is outlined in a revised portion of the government's Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan, which federal vaccine advisers will vote on Tuesday in the Washington suburb of Rockville, Md.

The plan, in the making since 1993, was released in draft form a year ago. It will be finalized by Aug. 1 and sent to Mike Leavitt, health and human services secretary, said Dr. Carolyn Bridges of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Immunization Program. Bridges has helped put together the plan.

Among the details still to be formalized are who would first get limited supplies of the vaccine and of antiviral drugs, Bridges said, and how much the government should purchase. Two federal vaccine advisory committees meeting Tuesday will take up those issues.

Close eye on bird flu

Continued cases of bird flu, or avian influenza H5N1, in Southeast Asia have escalated concerns that a flu pandemic, or global outbreak, may soon emerge. The most serious of three pandemics in the past century, the 1918 influenza, killed at least half a million Americans and 40 million people worldwide.

A "medium-level" pandemic could sicken 90 million Americans and kill more than 200,000, the CDC says.

Bird flu, now widespread in chickens and other birds in Asia, has infected at least 108 people and killed half of them since December 2003, but it has rarely been transmitted between people. If the virus mutates and starts spreading easily from person to person, it could set off a devastating wave of disease because humans have little or no immunity to it, officials say.

An experimental vaccine is in clinical trials, but it may have to be re-engineered to match a pandemic strain, a manufacturing process officials say would take at least six months.

Vaccine makers wouldn't be able to produce any more than 5 million doses a week, according to the pandemic plan, so rationing would likely be necessary.

Ethicists guide process

To ensure that the government could control limited supplies, the Department of Health and Human Services may have to purchase more of the vaccine than is typical during a regular flu season, when the private sector buys about 90 percent, Bridges said. So far, the government has stockpiled 2 million doses of the experimental vaccine.

Antiviral drugs, chiefly one called Tamiflu, also could treat or help ward off pandemic flu. But supplying millions of Americans with the drugs indefinitely would be costly. The government has purchased 2.3 million doses of Tamiflu and may buy an additional 2 million to 3 million doses, CDC officials say.

Because deciding who gets the vaccine or the antiviral drugs first could be controversial, ethicists have helped guide government decision-making. "There are a lot of trade-offs to be made," Bridges said.

She said the list could change if a pandemic strain reveals unique characteristics — such as in 1918, when many pregnant women and healthy people ages 20 to 40 succumbed, in addition to the typically high number of deaths among seniors and infants.







Find this article at:
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/health/0705/18cdcflu.html

 

[prudentwatcher]

The outlines of the problem are starting to hit the mainstream media now. On Sunday there was an article/editorial in the New York Times about how unprepared we are to face this threat. On "Good Morning America" this morning, Barbara Walters was interviewing a doctor about the threat. His suggestion was to form a good relationship with your doctor and to get a flu shot to keep down the risk of the bird flu from mutating/getting stronger (not clear on his reasoning--it was early). Barbara mentioned that the US was short on flu vacs anyway and they didn't protect against bird flu and wondered if we should press the government to stockpile more vaccines and medicines. The doctor recommended that patients press their doctors and then the doctors would press the government (yeah, right).

Not sure how helpful any of this is to the sheeple, but at least word is getting out about the problems it would present.

 

[Martin]

Birdflu appears to be mutating again


Jul 19, 2005

The bird flu virus that experts fear will jump from birds to humans seems to be mutating yet again, and may be able to hide in healthy-looking ducks, thus putting both other birds and people at risk, experts said.

They said the H5N1 virus could kill some ducks after causing only mild symptoms - which means it could lurk, undetected, in flocks while spreading silently.

"There is a real possibility that if these H5N1 viruses continue to circulate, further human infection will occur, increasing the potential for human-to-human transmission," the researchers write in this week's issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The H5N1 strain has killed more than 50 people in Asia since 2003. More than 140 million chickens have been slaughtered in the region in a bid to halt the disease.

Public health experts say the avian flu virus is mutating and fear it could develop the ability to spread easily from person to person and kill millions in a flu pandemic.

Dr. Robert Webster of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, and colleagues found more evidence of the virus mutating.

"Wild waterfowl, including ducks, are natural hosts of influenza A viruses," they wrote.

"These viruses rarely caused disease in ducks until 2002, when some H5N1 strains became highly pathogenic," they said, adding that their study showed the viruses were again becoming harmless to ducks.

Webster's team tested the newer strains of the H5N1 virus, including some taken from human patients in Vietnam.

They infected four-week-old mallard ducks, dripping various strains of the virus into the throat, eyes and elsewhere. Then they put uninfected ducks into the same cages.

Highly infectious

All the various strains of H5N1 infected the new ducks, including samples taken from human patients.

So then they tested each individual strain in more ducks.

"Viruses that caused the death of at least one duck could cause very mild symptoms, such as cloudy eyes with no neurological signs," the researchers wrote.

Health officials need to take note, the researchers said, because since the virus began making ducks as well as chickens sick in 2002, they had been looking for sick birds in checking for outbreaks of avian influenza.

Not only that, but the ducks that survived infection also spread the virus for weeks afterward, both in their droppings and from the respiratory tract.

"Therefore, the duck may be resuming its role as a reservoir of H5N1 viruses, transmitting them to other bird species and potentially to mammals," the researchers concluded.

"There may be many more ducks infected with low-pathogenicity viruses than are currently detected."

They recommended that health authorities start a survey to see if the virus is infecting even healthy-looking birds across the entire region.

Earlier this month researchers reported that H5N1 was infecting and killing wild geese in a Chinese park - wild geese that migrate as far afield as Siberia and New Zealand.

The researchers said in a separate report on Monday that Roche's influenza drug Tamiflu can help laboratory animals and, it is hoped, people, survive the newest strain of H5N1 virus.

Government officials are buying up stocks of Tamiflu and are also working to develop and stockpile a vaccine that works against avian flu in case it does begin to infect people.




http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/410965/598602

 

[Martin]

'Trojan' ducks could trigger global Asian flu pandemic, say scientists
By Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent



AVIAN FLU is being incubated by “Trojan ducks” that do not fall ill with the virus but transmit it to other species, including human beings.
An analysis of H5N1 influenza in ducks in Asia has disclosed that since 2002 the strain has become much less dangerous to the birds, allowing them to become a reservoir for the disease.



The findings, from a team led by Robert Webster, of St Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, suggest that ducks could help to trigger a global pandemic.

Dr Webster said: “These results suggest that the duck has become the ‘Trojan horse’ of Asian H5N1 influenza viruses. The ducks that are unaffected by infection continue to circulate these viruses, presenting a pandemic threat.”

The deadly H5N1 strain of the virus has been circulating in South-East Asia since 2002 and is confirmed to have killed 38 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and 4 in Cambodia. At least 97 people have been infected. Few cases of human-to-human transmission have been suspected — one of the key factors in a pandemic — but scientists are so alarmed that the World Health Organisation has declared it one of the gravest threats to global health.

In the study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Dr Webster’s team investigated how the H5N1 virus has evolved in ducks. When it emerged in 2002 it killed many of them but it has evolved to a point when it no longer makes them ill.

Dr Webster’s team inoculated ducks with H5N1 strains isolated between 1997 and 2004 from human beings or poultry. The older strains killed the ducks or made them seriously ill but the more recent ones did not. Even so, the ducks shed the virus for between 11 and 17 days — a much longer period than the ducks that received pre-2002 strains. While the newer strains were not dangerous to ducks, they still caused disease in chickens.

The longer shedding period increases the potential for human beings to be exposed to the virus. The more people are exposed to the virus, the greater the chance that it will evolve the capacity to move from person to person.

The team said that the mechanism helped to explain the origin of new H5N1 viruses. “There is a real possibility that if these H5N1 viruses continue to circulate, further human infection will occur, increasing the potential for human-to-human transmission.”


Oseltamivir, a drug used against influenza that is marketed as Tamiflu, could help to contain avian flu, researchers at St Jude Children’s Research Hospital reported in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1699287,00.html

 

[Kim99]

Here's a surprise

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/18/AR2005071801584.html

China Has Not Shared Crucial Data On Bird Flu Outbreaks, Officials Say

By Alan Sipress
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, July 19, 2005; Page A15

MANILA -- The Chinese government has not provided information requested urgently by international health experts about recent avian flu outbreaks in birds, which now threaten to spread the highly lethal virus to previously unaffected countries, according to U.N. officials and independent researchers.

World Health Organization officials and other international health organizations have asked the Chinese government for details about three outbreaks in the remote western provinces of Qinghai and Xinjiang. In seeking to head off a potential human pandemic, international health experts said they require samples of the bird flu virus, analyses of its genetic makeup and specifics about the extent of the infection and efforts to contain it.

"It is a matter of urgency," said Julie Hall, coordinator of communicable diseases in WHO's China office. "It is an outbreak of potential international importance. We're looking for China to share the information as quickly as possible and as much as possible."

While Chinese authorities allowed a team of investigators from WHO and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization to visit Qinghai last month, the government has yet to respond to a June 17 request by international health experts to travel to Xinjiang, U.N. officials said. The Chinese officials, saying the infection in Xinjiang has been contained, have given no indication they will authorize the trip.

Chinese officials did not respond to written requests for comment by The Washington Post sent Wednesday to the State Council, the equivalent of China's cabinet, and the Agriculture Ministry. When officials were contacted again on Friday, they said they were still working on a response.

In late April, Chinese authorities began to detect the widespread death of migratory birds at a nature reserve in Qinghai, an important breeding and transit point for 189 bird species. During the following weeks, Chinese officials reported that more than 6,000 waterfowl had died from bird flu, raising the prospect that the disease could spread along the long-distance migration routes to South Asia and beyond to Europe.

Then, last month, China reported two more outbreaks in Xinjiang, including one on the border with Kazakhstan. Though officials said the deaths were mainly among domestic geese and ducks, they added that migratory birds had played a role in spreading the infection.

Hitoshi Oshitani, WHO's chief influenza expert for East Asia, stressed that it was vital to get information about the outbreaks because the death of migratory birds, previously resistant to bird flu, indicates the virus could be taking an ominous turn.

"We need to find out what is actually causing the problem. We need to know what change in the virus is responsible for such an event," Oshitani said in an interview at WHO's regional headquarters in Manila.

He added that health experts were also anxious for detailed information because the location of recent outbreaks in western China, far from earlier cases in the east of the country, puts the lethal disease for the first time on the doorstep of Central Asia.

Since bird flu began circulating widely in East Asia two years ago, it has devastated poultry flocks in nine countries and killed at least 56 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Indonesia's health minister said last week that she suspected the virus was also responsible for the recent deaths of three people in one family on the outskirts of the capital, Jakarta.

International health experts warn that the existing virus strain, still difficult to spread to humans, could easily undergo a genetic change and spark a global human pandemic, killing tens of millions of people.

U.N. officials and independent scientists said they were reluctant to publicly discuss their frustrations with China for fear the government would shut them out of the country. But officials and researchers said they were dismayed with the government's secrecy, especially after China ran afoul of international agencies for its response to the SARS epidemic that began in 2002. China's health minister was fired after the government acknowledged it covered up the SARS outbreak.

Independent Chinese scientists reporting on the bird flu outbreaks also have come under fire from the Agriculture Ministry, which is responsible for monitoring the disease. After an article published two weeks ago in the journal Nature, warning of the international threat posed by the Qinghai outbreak and linking it to earlier bird flu cases in southeastern China, a senior veterinary official, Jia Youling, accused the highly recognized authors of conducting unapproved research and reaching inaccurate conclusions.

One of the authors, Guan Yi of Hong Kong University, said Chinese officials had stymied his research since May and complained to The Scientist magazine last week that the government was trying to shut down his laboratory.

After each outbreak in western China was reported, WHO officials promptly asked the government to provide genetic sequencing information developed from samples taken from infected birds, Hall said. The sequencing data are considered critical in tracking the development of the virus strains.

"The key questions are what exactly is this virus, what risk could it provide to humans and where it goes next. Until the sequencing information is provided by the government, it's very difficult to know," Hall said.

Commentary
.
China Fails to Respond to WHO H5N1 Bird Flu RequestsRecombinomics Commentary
July 19, 2005

The Chinese government has not provided information requested urgently by international health experts about recent avian flu outbreaks in birds, which now threaten to spread the highly lethal virus to previously unaffected countries, according to U.N. officials and independent researchers.

World Health Organization officials and other international health organizations have asked the Chinese government for details about three outbreaks in the remote western provinces of Qinghai and Xinjiang. In seeking to head off a potential human pandemic, international health experts said they require samples of the bird flu virus, analyses of its genetic makeup and specifics about the extent of the infection and efforts to contain it.

The delay in the approval of a WHO request to visit the two sites of H5N1 outbreaks in Xinjiang Province is cause for concern. After a three week delay, WHO did visit the site of the H5N1 outbreak at Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve. Recent publications in Nature and Science describe Qinghai isolates that are unusually virulent. The original OIE report by China describe 519 migratory birds that had died from H5N1. The dominant species was bar headed geese, but four other species were described. Migratory birds are usually resistant to H5N1 infections and the size of the H5N1 outbreak was unprecedented.

Shortly after the Qinhai outbreak China reported two additional outbreaks in neighboring Xinjiang province. The two reports cited migratory birds as the source of the H5N1. WHO's request to add Xinjiang to their Qinghai visit. The request was denied and a request for a second visit has not been answered.

The on site visit is important for several reasons. Third party reports indicated there had been fatal human infections associated with the Qinghai outbreak. China denied that there were human H5N1 cases, indicating there were no reported human positives. However, WHO was told that only two patients were tested, and the probes used in the test were questionable. Although 600 others had been exposed, they were not tested because they were "dispersed".

Additional reports by boxun indicated H5N1 infections in humans were widespread. 10 strains of H5N1 were detailed and 8 had been detected in human cases. The most virulent was RX7 which appears to be the same as the isolates described in nature and Science. However, boxun reports described at least two additional strains from Qingahi, indicating dual or even triple infections were occurring in poultry. The dual infections can lead to new reassortants and recombinants, leading to further destabilization of the H5N1 gene pool.

In addition there were reports of pneumonia clusters in Tacheng, site of the first reported outbreak in Xinjiang. Reports described an isolation ward for patients and health care workers because of bacterial pneumonia. However, bacterial pneumonia is generally not very infectious or serious, raising suspicions of H5N1 infections in Tacheng, located 5 miles from the Kazakhstan border and about 100 miles from borders with Russia and Mongolia.

After the Qinghai visit, WHO recommended that China share sequences and samples and aggressively collect samples from asymptomatic birds at Qinghai Lake before they return to India, Europe, and southeast Asia. It is unclear if samples were collected, but new samples or sequences from China have not been provided, raising additional concerns that the boxun reports of widespread human infections in China are correct. China has never reported any H5N1 infections in humans.

The migration of H5N1 infected waterfowl could spread H5N1 worldwide, and China's failure to cooperate is cause for concern.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07190502/WHO_Xinjiang_Denial.html

 

[Martin]

Avian influenza kills over 9.5 million chickens in Indonesia



Avian Influenza, or bird flu, has led to the death of 9.53 million chickens in Indonesia since the first outbreak was reported in August 2003, an official from the Ministry of Agriculture said here on Tuesday.

It was the total number of chickens killed over the last two years, Sudarmono, head of the animal disease prevention and eradication subdirectorate said.

"Since its first outbreak, we have conducted various prevention efforts, including vaccination of healthy chickens, surveillance programs and bio-security through the implementation of tight inspection of livestock and human beings," Antara news agency quoted Sudarmono as saying.

The efforts have generated good results, even though, sporadically, special incidents still took place, especially with quails and other local fowl, he said.

Vaccination programs were applied at small-scale poultry farms as the large-scale ones already had their own vaccination schedules, he added.

Sudarmono said that last year alone the Ministry of Agriculture distributed 296 million dosages of vaccine, of which 70 percent had been done this year.

http://english.people.com.cn/200507/20/eng20050720_197137.html

 

[Martin]

Deadly Bird Flu Comes to Tibet
Tibet Justice Center[Tuesday, July 19, 2005 22:01]
TRIN-GYI-PHO-NYA, Vol. 3, No. 3

By Minnie Wood*

At least 5,000 migratory birds have died from avian influenza at Tso-Ngon (Lake Kokonor) in the Amdo region of Tibet since early May 2005, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). These deaths include several species of migratory birds, including bar-headed geese, great black-headed gulls, brown-headed gulls, ruddy shelducks, and great cormorants. This is the first instance of widespread deaths from avian influenza in migratory birds—rather than domestic birds—indicating that the avian influenza virus may have become more dangerous. The Chinese government has not reported any cases of avian influenza in humans in the region.

Avian influenza, or bird flu, is a naturally occurring virus among birds. Wild birds are carriers of the virus but usually do not become ill from it. But avian influenza is extremely contagious and can cause domesticated birds like chickens and ducks to become sick and die. The particular subtype of bird flu that is currently circulating, H5N1, is deadly. Outbreaks of the disease have occurred in poultry in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos and South Korea. More than 100 million birds in these countries have died from the disease or have been killed (“culled”) in order to prevent its spread. In addition, there have been 108 cases of bird flu in humans and a total of 54 deaths. It is believed that humans become infected through contact with diseased birds and contaminated surfaces, including ingestion of raw or undercooked poultry. But much remains to be learned about specific modes of transmission,

Flu viruses can change rapidly and there is growing concern that a human infection with a bird and a human flu at the same time can give rise to a new type of influenza to which people will have no natural immunity. Such a disease could be devastating to human beings, resulting in a worldwide pandemic. From 1918 to 1919, a different subtype of flu killed approximately 50 million people around the world.

The WHO has expressed concern about the possibility of the spread of bird flu outside of the Amdo region and about the Chinese government’s efforts to test migratory birds and people in the area. Approximately 100,000 birds from 189 different species congregate at Tso-Ngon each year. Despite those numbers, and more than 5,000 bird deaths from the disease, only 12 birds and 2 humans have been tested for avian influenza. In addition, little is known about the specific migratory patterns of the different species, making early warning of other areas of Tibet, China and Asia, a difficult prospect. WHO officials have insisted that China step up efforts to tag and test birds, and to make laboratory findings from analyzed samples available to international organizations. Because the birds will resume their migratory pattern in August or September, flying south and west, attempts at tagging, tracking and testing birds must begin immediately.

China has also been the target of a recent WHO inquiry regarding its avian influenza prevention strategies. The Washington Post recently reported that the Chinese government condoned and encouraged the widespread use of the human antiviral medication, amantadine, in domestic poultry. The drug, which was fed to poultry, may have caused the H5N1 virus to adapt and become resistant to amantadine, rendering the medication useless to combat bird flu infection in humans. Researchers have already determined that the flu circulating in Vietnam and Thailand is resistant to amantadine.

Chinese officials have cordoned off Tso-Ngon, limiting access to the public. According to Chinese news agencies, vaccination of birds in the area is underway, but no migratory birds have been culled due to their protected status. Another outbreak of avian influenza has been reported in Tacheng city, in Xinjiang province; however international agencies have not yet been granted permission to visit.

Transmission of avian influenza occurs primarily though contact with infected poultry or other birds. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommends avoiding contact, whenever possible, with poultry and any surfaces that may have been contaminated by them or their bodily secretions. The CDC also cautions against eating uncooked poultry or poultry products, including blood. All foods from poultry should be cooked thoroughly. As with all infectious diseases, the most important preventive measure anyone can take is washing hands and contaminated surfaces thoroughly with soap and water. These, and other public health measures, may be difficult to implement in areas of Tibet like Amdo in which the population is extremely spread out and may lack resources such as running water.

http://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?id=10252&article=Deadly+Bird+Flu+Comes+to+Tibet

 

[Kim99]

Indonesia confirms first three human deaths from bird flu

Indonesia confirmed its first human deaths from bird flu Wednesday, a man and his two daughters, bringing Asia's toll from the disease to 57 people.

Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari told reporters lab tests from Hong Kong showed the 38-year-old man and his two children, 9 and 1, had the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

She said the tests done in Hong Kong were based on specimens from the father and one of the daughters, but it could be concluded that all three had died of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

"We don't distinguish between the three," she said.

All three family members lived in a suburb of Jakarta and died earlier this month.

Bird flu has swept through poultry populations in large swaths of Asia since 2003. Tens of millions of chickens have either died or been slaughtered, while bird flu has killed 38 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand, four in Cambodia, and - with the latestdeaths - three in Indonesia.

The Jakarta Post, http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaillatestnews.asp?fileid=20050720140202&irec=0


Commentary
.
Fatal H5N1 Bird Flu in Suburban Jakarta Family Confirmed

Recombinomics Commentary
July 20, 2005

Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari told reporters lab tests from Hong Kong showed the 38-year-old man and his two children, 9 and 1, had the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

She said the tests done in Hong Kong were based on specimens from the father and one of the daughters, but it could be concluded that all three had died of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

"We don't distinguish between the three," she said.

The above comments confirm initial reports of fatal H5N1 in a three member family cluster. The disease onset dates were bimodal, strongly suggesting human-to-human transmission within the family. This distribution is found in virtually every familial cluster in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, further confirming widespread human-to-human transmission of fatal bird flu.

The origin of the infection is unknown, but H5N1 in asymptomatic swine was reported in the same area earlier. The H5N1 from the swine was similar to H5N1 from Yunnan province in China. The family however lives in a Jakarta suburb, Tangergang, and has no reported contact with chickens. The deceased father was a government auditor with a master degree.

Transmissible fatal H5N1 in an urban area like Jakarta is cause for concern, because of further spread within Jarkata and international spread via air travel.

 

[Martin]

UK to Stockpile 2 Million Doses of Bird Flu Vaccine


UK: July 21, 2005


LONDON - The British government plans to stockpile 2 million doses of vaccine to fight the H5N1 strain of bird flu which has hit Asia.


The vaccine will be used to protect key healthcare and emergency workers against a possible global flu pandemic, health minister Patricia Hewitt said in a statement on Wednesday.
Manufacturers are being invited to tender for contracts.

Hewitt said a strategic stockpile of H5N1 vaccine could be used as a first line of defence whilst a vaccine against the exact strain of pandemic flu is manufactured.

The governments of the United States, France, Canada and Australia have similar plans to purchase limited quantities of H5N1 vaccine.

Bird flu, which arrived in Asia in late 2003, has so far killed 40 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and 4 in Cambodia -- and Indonesia confirmed its first three deaths from the virus on Wednesday.

Public health experts fear the avian flu virus is mutating and could develop the ability to spread easily from person to person, potentially killing millions in a flu pandemic.

In addition to stockpiling vaccines, governments around the world, including Britain, are also buying up stocks of Roche Holding AG's Tamiflu drug to treat people exposed to the virus.

The Swiss drug company said earlier on Wednesday that more than 25 governments had now placed orders for Tamiflu in preparation for a potential outbreak of bird flu in humans.

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/31734/story.htm

 

[Kim99]

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/health/briefs/infectiousdiseases/hb050720a.htm

7/20/05
Flu-vaccine rationing ahead?
By Bernadine Healy, M.D.

"The pandemic influenza clock is ticking. We just don't know what time it is," says Ed Marcuse, a member of one of the two federal vaccine advisory groups that put the final touches on the Department of Health and Human Services' draft Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan.

During an all-day meeting in Rockville, Md., yesterday, the advisers voted unanimously on a scheme for rationing emergency pandemic flu vaccine and recommended that the federal government buy up to 600 million doses—enough for the entire country.

The plan responds to the deadly strain of bird flu called H5N1 still devastating chickens and other poultry throughout Asia. This new virus has now moved into wild migratory birds, tigers, and cats. And, according to the World Health Organization, it has killed 54 of the 108 people who contracted it, mostly from their direct contact with sick birds. Experts fear the strain is threatening to morph into a fast-spreading form that is easily transmissible from human to human—the key ingredient that could trigger a global influenza epidemic of the kind that killed tens of millions of people worldwide in 1918.

With current technology, it will take well over a year to produce enough vaccine for the entire population. Since it's a new strain, each person will need two immunizations, not the usual one. That means the early months of an epidemic will call for major rationing. The plan lays out just who will get the vaccine, in descending order of priority:


Group 1. The highest-priority group includes 9 million healthcare workers involved in direct patient care; 40,000 people who are making the vaccine and antiflu medicines; and some 37 million people who are at greatest risk if they get the flu, namely those over age 64 with a medical illness, younger people with two serious underlying medical conditions, pregnant women, and all household contacts of children under 6 months of age. Also in this top group are key government officials and specialized pandemic flu responders.
Group 2. In the next tier are healthy seniors; younger people with one risky health condition; young children between 6 to 23 months old (the vaccine is not recommended for infants under 6 months); and workers in critical fields like public safety, utilities, emergency response, transportation, and telecommunication. This group is 68 million strong.
Group 3. The third priority is 500,000 people, including key government healthcare decision makers and those working in mortuary services.
Group 4.At the bottom are the remaining 179 million healthy people, 2 to 64 years old, not included in any other category.

The working group did not include nursing home residents, who typically get annual flu shots, among the highest-priority group. Instead, they advise vaccination of the nursing home healthcare workers and the prophylactic use of the antiviral drug oseltamavir (Tamiflu) in the advent of an outbreak.

The advisory committee acknowledged that the prioritization could change quickly once an outbreak occurs. For example, in the pandemic of 1918 nearly half of those who died were young healthy adults. And in Asia, most of the deaths from H5N1 bird flu have been in younger people.

Tamiflu is the best bet for treating those who catch the deadly virus. HHS has already stockpiled 2.3 million treatment courses. But since an outbreak is estimated to have an attack rate of 25 percent, the advisory group proposed that the Tamiflu stockpile be increased to a whopping 133 million courses. A typical 5-day course of the drug cost about $50 wholesale, but that may be lower if it's sold in bulk.

And who will pay for all this? Because it would be a serious national emergency, the working group says the government should. Only federal pockets are deep enough to guarantee the massive orders ahead of time so manufacturers can build up capacity to make the huge volumes.

But the advisers were also convinced that government purchase of all pandemic vaccine available in this country would bring added benefit: HHS would then have the power to enforce its rationing priorities, assure the drugs are fairly distributed, and fend off the chaos that hit last fall when an unexpected manufacturing plant shut-down led to shortage of the annual flu-shot supply.

The draft pandemic plan, which has been under review since it was released for public comment on Aug. 26, 2004, will be finalized and sent to HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt in August.

 

[Martin]

July 20, 2005

Avian flu found in duck meat shipped from China to Japan

By MARGIE MASON

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) - The avian flu virus was found in processed frozen duck meat shipped for human consumption from China to Japan two years ago - another reminder of how easily the disease can cross borders and how hard it is to kill, health officials said Wednesday.

In a recent study published online in the journal Virology, a team of Japanese researchers reported a form of the H5N1 virus was found in duck meat exported from China's Shandong province into Japan in 2003.

The World Health Organization said this was not the first time the virus has been found in processed meat, but it stressed the findings illustrate the virus's strength and presence in Asian poultry stocks.

However, WHO said processed poultry meat poses no risk to consumers as long as precautions are taken during preparation, such as frequently washing hands and countertops and making sure all meat is thoroughly cooked and no blood remains.

"This is an indicator that H5N1 viruses are widespread in Asia in many different kinds of fowl," said Bob Dietz, a spokesman for WHO's Western Pacific Region.

"We know this virus to be a persistent, aggressive survivor. This study is another indicator of that."

The findings come as China is under pressure to provide more information about the virus found in wild birds. The country has not responded to WHO requests for information about 6,000 migratory bird deaths in the western province of Qinghai or to let experts visit the site of a reported bird flu outbreak near the border with Kazakhstan, said Roy Wadia, a spokesman for WHO's Beijing office.

WHO said the Japanese research suggests the H5N1 virus was circulating among poultry stocks in China when the ducks were processed.

"It is another way in which the virus can spread across boundaries," Dietz said. "It's an indicator that by the time the ducks were slaughtered there is very good reason to believe they had been exposed to the H5N1 virus."

A Hong Kong researcher also published a study this month saying 1,000 geese that recently died in Qinghai province likely contracted the virus from poultry. Chinese health officials have not responded to requests for comment.

Since 2003, bird flu has killed at least 57 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia, which reported its first three human deaths Wednesday. A father and his two young daughters from a Jakarta suburb died earlier this month, and tests confirmed they were infected with the H5N1 virus, said Indonesian Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari.

The disease has also devastated poultry stocks in the region, where millions of sick birds have died or been slaughtered.

The Japanese study also found the virus discovered in the duck meat was also slightly genetically different from other bird flu viruses, raising questions about different types of avian influenza circulating among Asian poultry.

After exposing mice to the virus, they found it was not as pathogenic as the H5N1 virus found in humans, but that it could have the potential to become more virulent.

"This data revealed that multiple H5N1 genotypes have (been) circulating in China," said Masaji Mase, one of the study's authors from the National Institute of Animal Health in Japan, who added more research was needed in China.

International health experts have repeatedly warned the bird flu virus could evolve into a highly contagious form passed easily from person to person, sparking a global pandemic. So far, most cases have been traced to contact with sick birds.


http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2005/07/20/pf-1140128.html

 

[Kim99]

Commentary
.
Boxun Description of Ebola in China

Recombinomics Commentary
July 19, 2005

1. EB-SZ type: It was found in Shenzhen of South China. People contracted the virus showing severe illness, and they were infected through the contact of blood. Incubation period is 2-4 weeks. Some individual cases have incubation period up to 6 months. Some cases are asymptomatic. Those infected people's immunity drops suddenly that triggers other co-infections and complications. When non-Ebola virus related infections become severe, it could lead to diathesis from the major blood vessels. In severe cases, blood vessels disintegrate; muscular tissues became fluid-like; patients died of lack of oxygen due to haemorrhage. After the case die, the disintegration symptoms persist with the change of room temperature, ie above 12.4 degree Celcius. The process continues until the carcass completely disintegrates. The disintegration process slows down when temperature is lower than 8.7 degree Celcius; and the process halts at below 4 degree Celcius. Therefore, the best treatment for infected person is to use low temperature therapy. To treat the deceased cases, it is better to seal the body under low temperature. To disinfect the environment where the cases die has to use both high temperature disinfection and low temperature disinfection with the assistance of potent medication.

2. EB-ST type: It was found in Shantou of South China. People contracted the virus showing severe illness. Transmission is unknown. Incubation period: 30-120 days. Infected people have localized maculopapular rash. Cases occur in the form of diathesis in the smallest capillaries that lead to necrosis of the involved tissues. The characteristic of this virus is its intermittent exacerbation of the symptoms. This virus is suspected to be the mutated by-product of Ebola virus and other viruses. The confirmative diagnosis is usually made by the identification of EB-SZ-like virus in the tissues of deceased cases.

3. EB-HN type: It was found in Hunan of Central China. Transmission is unknown. Incubation is about 30-60 days. Infected cases experience discomfort due to the localized diathesis. After the disintegration of blood vessels, patients experience symptoms related to blood loss. Most of the deceased cases' heavily infected organs were in their lungs. If the blood vessels of the internal organs were infected, it will cause hepatic damage. Deceased case's face and bottom will disintegrate within 2-8 hours afterwards; their nails also fall apart. Autopsy found that the tissues of tendons were as soft as muscle. The deceased cases' blood are contagious. Contact through other means will not lead to infection of the virus.

4. EB-FJ type: It was found in Fujian province of South China. The virus was transmitted through the carrier's blood. Incubation period is about 20-30 days. Infected people will become immunocompromised that leads to influenza induced pneumonia and bleeding in the lungs. Subsequently, it leads to respiratory failure. Autopsy found that the vessels in the deceased cases' lung were fluid like; other tissues were normal. Deceased cases displayed purplish spots in their necks.

5. EB-ZJ type: It was found in Zhanjian of South China. Not much details on this virus subtype.

6. EB-SZ77 type: It was found in Shenzhen of South China (adjacent to Hong Kong). This virus could infect birds.

The above human translation of a boxun report raises serious questions about Ebola infections in China. It has not been independently confirmed and Ebola has not been reported outside of Africa. The above report offers no genetic details on the relationship between the above isolates and the various sequenced Ebola and Marburg isolates.

The boxun reports on H5N1 bird flu strains appear to be quite believable and are supported by China's refusal to allow WHO visit the recent sites of H5N1 infections in Xinjiang province as well as the refusal to share sequence data on isolates from the latest outbreak.

Other boxun documents indicate details of H5N1 and Ebola infections are considered state secrets, which clearly if true, is cause for concerns. China's recent actions of limiting access and distribution of strains and sequences increases the credibility of the boxun reports.

"Moreover, H5N1 and Ebola have a region of sequence identity between HA and spike genes."

In other words, some people are speculating ( and I don't know if this is physically possible) that H5N1 and Ebola have recombined in China

 

[Kim99]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07200502/H5N1_Human_Widespread_China.html

Commentary
.
Widespread Human H5N1 Bird Flu Infections in China?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 20, 2005

Patient's infection source is the chicken which edible includes the virus, the duck, the goose and its the egg product or the above living specimen contact. The patient after the infection internal heat birds and beasts flu, the virus meets the ambush, the usual incubation period is 15 days, crosses the patient after the incubation period to be able to appear the blood to be hot, the hands and feet department massively sheds skin, has the red spot phenomenon, the patient lungs can appear the high fever which continues, causes cough which the patient appears suppresses with difficulty, and has the discontinuity to have a poor appetite, dizziness, the body becomes emaciated and so on the symptom, the partial partners have the flu symptom, the partial crowds have the immunity to this type virus, this virus at present treats unusual complex, belongs to the stubborn disease, at present China's many places merely list as this disease the simple chronic pneumonia, the chronic bronchitis, virulent flu, Chinese medicine rebirth all kinds

The above machine translated boxun report suggests that large inflows of patients in China, including Guandong province, are due to H5N1 bird flu. Many of the infections originate in various forms of food (probably uncooked or undercooked) and have a long incubation period of about two weeks.

The infections are misdiagnosed, which is similar to reports of 1918 flu pandemic. This latest boxun report, in conjunction with earlier reports of 10 different H5N1 strains in China is cause for concern. Seven of the ten strains were found in humans and the range of symptoms was broad, including those with mild flu-like conditions. The most virulent human strain was RK7, which would appear to be the virulent Qinghai Lake strain recently described in Nature and Science. This strain could cause a catastrophic pandemic because of transport by migratory birds. The Qinghai outbreak was quickly followed by deaths of ducks and geese on farms in Xinjiang and China has not responded to a WHO request for an on site visit to the Xinjiang areas. There have also been reports of pneumonia clusters in Tacheng, site of on soutbreak and boxun reports have provided detail on fatal H5N1 human cases in Qinghai.

These data strongly suggest that the pandemic stage is at five or six, although WHO maintains that it is at three indicating all of the familial clusters, including the latest in Indonesia, are mere coincidences and not due to human-to-human transmission (stage four is defined by small dead end human-to-human transmission clusters).

WHO's position is not scientifically valid and encourages under-reporting, which appears to be rampant in China, where a raging stage six flu pandemic may be happening.

 

[Kim99]

More from China:

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07200503/H5N1_China_Cover_Up.html
Commentary
.
China Withholds Key H5N1 Bird Flu Data

Recombinomics Commentary
July 20, 2005

Authorities also haven't responded to a WHO request to be allowed to visit the Xinjiang region in China's northwest, where there have been reports of a bird flu outbreak along the border with Kazakhstan, said Roy Wadia, a spokesman for WHO's Beijing office.

Chinese authorities have yet to release samples gathered in the western province of Qinghai, where at least 6,000 migratory birds have died, Wadia said.

"It would be useful if information on the virus was shared with the international agencies concerning bird flu, or if it were deposited at gene banks as per the usual procedures in these cases," Wadia said.

China's Ministry of Agriculture didn't immediately respond Wednesday to requests for comment.

China's failure to respond to foreign appeals for cooperation has prompted fears that the outbreak might be bigger and more dangerous than reported.

The above comments add considerable weight to concerns that there is a raging human pandemic in China. China has been the epicenter of the unprecedented H5N1 outbreak in 2004. H5N1 was reported throughout China and most adjacent countries. The reported human cases were in Vietnam and Thailand. In 2005 the human cases were initially concentrated in Vietnam and Cambodia.

However, the demographics of the outbreak in Vietnam suggested a less lethal but more transmissible variant was affecting northern Vietnam. Although these cases had been laboratory confirmed, WHO refused to acknowledge the widespread human-to-human transmission. The first sequences of 2005 were recently made public, and these new sequences clearly show a China connection, with sequences found in Guangdong and Yunnan province. Today fatal human H5N1 was confirmed in Indonesia in suburban Jakarta, where H5N1 was also detected in asymptomatic swine. The swine sequences also pointed toward a Yunnan origin.

The sequences of the H5N1 provide valuable clues on the origin of infections. A large database was generated using 2004 isolates and additional 2005 isolates have been deposited at GenBank, although two weeks after publication, GenBank has still not released these sequences.

The description of the sequences however, has been published and they also show links to earlier sequences from Shantou and Hong Kong. The Nature paper also described 2005 H5N1 sequences from Yunnan, Hunan, and Fujian Province in addition to Shantou in Guangdong Provicince. The Qinghai sequences also have a polymorphism in PB2 (E627K), which had previously been limited to human flu isolates. The presence in H5N1 was limited to brain isolates from experimental mice, or severe, usually fatal, cases in humans, dating back to the 1997 outbreak.

The H5N1 in Qinghai is unusually severe in migratory birds, which is why it is critical to obtain additional sequence information on the birds before they disperse throughout Asia and Europe. These sequences can help identify the genetic changes, which are required to produce more specific probes for detecting H5N1 and designing more specific vaccines.

Boxun reports indicate the birds at Qinghai Lake are infected with several versions of H5N1, which leads to new reassortants and recombinants. The Qinghai isolates are already reassortants, with three genes related to Shantou isolates and five related to a Hong Kong isolate. The E627K indicates they are also recombinants and dual infections will generate new recombinants.

The withholding of the sequence data is an ominous sign. Boxun reports indicate China has an active avian influenza program and will certainly collect samples and sequences from Qinghai lake, in addition to the sequences from the Xinjiang outbreaks. Failure to share this information adds to speculation of a widespread cover-up of human cases. Boxun reports detailed human cases in Qinghai and the description of the 10 strains indicates 7 infect humans.

China has never reported a human H5N1 case although fatal human cases in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Indonesia all have genetic links to China.

It appears increasingly likely that an unreported flu pandemic is well underway in China.

 

[Martin]

Bird flu 'as serious a threat as terrorism'

Any glance at the British media in recent months reveals a growing fear of a bird flu pandemic across the globe.

The attitude, particularly among the scientific community, appears to be one of "when" not "if" there is an outbreak.

One report earlier this year quoted the Civil Contingency Secretariat warning that the H5N1 form of avian flu that has now claimed the lives of 54 people in south-east Asia as being "as serious a threat as terrorism".

Britain's emergency Cobra committee, which met to deal with the response to the July 7 London bombings, would also be convened to help fight the spread of the disease.

Elsewhere, scientists and other eminent public health bodies have propounded theories and estimates.

Fears of the worldwide threat of bird flu were raised earlier this month when the strain was spotted in migratory bar-headed geese in western China, the first confirmation it can be passed between wild birds.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) believes a bird flu pandemic is "inevitable" and could cause some 50,000 deaths in the UK. Others were more pessimistic.

One senior British Government official revealed that emergency services and coroners will be warned to prepare for between 20,000 and 750,000 deaths in the event of a pandemic, potentially more devastating than the previous worst 'flu outbreak in 1918.

The academic who was one of the first to warn of the threat of BSE, microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington, went further, predicting that up to two million Britons could die from a mutated form of the H5N1 virus.

'Widespread panic'

In the journal Nature, US and Dutch scientists, put forward an apocryphal scenario: millions of deaths, about one fifth of the world's population affected, widespread panic and the collapse of international trade.

The arrival of pandemic flu would "change the world overnight", they said, and a global response to the threat, including better monitoring of infectious diseases and restrictions on animal movements worldwide, was needed to avoid a potential catastrophe.

Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt's announcement to order two million doses of a vaccine against the H5N1 virus comes against such a background.

It follows Department of Health plans outlined in March to stockpile 14.6m doses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, costing £200 million, and other measures such as closing schools and cancelling sporting events.

A new inter-departmental Government group, including chief scientists, was also set up last month to develop models on how to handle an outbreak in the UK.

The Health Protection Agency points out that the UK is one of only a few countries who have successfully completed clinical trials on a vaccine against H5 influenza strains.

The UK Vaccine Industry Group, whose members are likely to be involved in developing any virus, also praised the "proactive" response.

Despite this, the Government and other industrialised nations' handling of the situation has been criticised: some experts doubt that relying on a vaccine would have any short-term effects as the exact strain of virus would not be known until the pandemic struck.

Dr Douglas Fleming, the Royal College of General Practitioners' 'flu spokesman, is among those who have given a cautious welcome.

The vaccine tender was an important step, he said, particularly with the hope that a vaccine from an H5 virus could offer some protection from a range of H5 virus variants.

But he added: "Whilst we should regard that as prudent, we nevertheless should recognise that it is highly speculative. We know antiviral drugs have been ordered as a stockpile but manufacturing capacity is such that these cannot be delivered very quickly.

"I do not know what the delivery conditions attached to this vaccine order are. The human cases of bird flu have been serious and I think we should support this action even though its value is speculative."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/text/print.html?in_article_id=356539&in_page_id=1774

 

[Martin]

Russia finds first suspected case of bird flu

TBILISI (Reuters) - A man arrested in Georgia has said he threw a grenade during a speech by visiting U.S. President George W. Bush in May in the former Soviet republic, a deputy health minister said on Thursday.
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia has found its first case of bird flu, strains of which can spread to people and can be fatal, the Emergencies Ministry said on Thursday, but the country's chief veterinarian could not confirm the news.

Viktor Beltsov, a spokesman for the Emergencies Ministry, said bird flu had been detected in poultry in a village in Siberia's Novosibirsk region.

"Numerous birds have died...and an investigation showed the presence of the AH5-type bird flu virus," Beltsov said.

But Sergei Dankvert, chief animal and plant safety officer, told Reuters that the death of the birds could have been caused by other factors.

"We cannot say now if something out of the ordinary has occured. The reason behind the accident could be bad water, feed poisoning, Newcastle disease or bird flu. More investigation is needed," Dankvert said.

Russia does not produce enough poultry for domestic needs and imports over a million tonnes of poultry meat annually, mainly from the United States, the European Union and Brazil.

Beltsov was not able to give any further details on the AH5 virus. The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has killed at least 50 people in Asia since 2003.

Indonesia confirmed on Wednesday its first deaths from bird flu, saying tests on a father and his two young daughters who died recently showed they had contracted the virus.

The bird flu virus is split into strains such as H5 and H7. Both of these, for example, have the potential to be high or low pathogenic.

Of the H5 strain, there are potentially nine different subtypes such as H5N1, H5N2 and H5N3.

The deadly strain of the virus that has struck Asia is the high pathogenic H5N1 type that can be transmitted to humans.


http://thestar.com.my/news/story.as...01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_-210125-1&sec=Worldupdates

 

[Kim99]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indonesia starts to get ready

For a country that two weeks ago was set to declare itself "bird flu free," Indonesia certainly went quickly 180 degrees in the other direction. One of the world's most populous nations (220 million people) now also has human bird flu fatalities and has admitted infection
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2...ent_3249561.htm
in poultry in 21 of its 30 provinces resulting in almost 10 million chicken deaths. Four of the remaining nine provinces have shown preliminary evidence of infection. Just goes to show you what you might find once you actually look for it.

In a break from past practice, Indonesia will also cull (kill) the chickens on the infected farms. Prior to this they have relied on vaccination. There is considerable controversy about which is the best strategy, with WHO opposed to vaccination but the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization favoring it. The Indonesian government chose it because it didn't wish to compensate farmers for culling but has now reversed its position and has approved a little over $13 million for the purpose. This may slow the spread and gain time, but the H5N1 influenza serotype is obviously spreading globally and there is no way to stop it.

Health officials continue to try to balance caution and optimism, repeating that so far there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside of intimate family contact. I guess they need to be hit over the head with a two by four. But reading between the lines isn't difficult:

"Basically, the anxiety is person-to-person transfer," Sian Griffiths, director of the School of Public Health at the Chinese University in Hong Kong, told Reuters.

"And how do you stop any potential spread before it gets into the population and becomes an epidemic."
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=963304

The disease already had jumped the species barrier from birds to pigs on populous Java Island and at least one asymptomatic poultry worker had been found prior to the three fatalities of last week (which were initially denied to be from bird flu). The pig connection is especially worrisome as it has classically been the "mixing vessel" whereby bird viruses combine with human viruses to produce new pandemic strains. So Indonesia is putting its rickety public health machine into what passes for high gear by "preparing" 44 hospitals around the country for the treatment and detection of bird flu (no details given as to the nature of these preparations).

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=963304
Speaking at the same news conference [as the Indonesian Health Minister], World Health Organization (WHO) representative Georg Petersen said:

"It is an alarming situation. It shows us that most countries can get this infection and we need all to be alert and prepared." (Reuters)

Well, maybe. Not everyone is so alarmed. In Australia (Bush Lite in the southern hemisphere) the Health Minister says the Indonesian situation is no big deal.

http://www.optusnet.com.au/news/sto...tic/1419322.inp
There has been no change in Australia's bird flu risk level, despite Indonesia confirming three deaths from the deadly virus.

Australia's chief medical officer says the deaths are concerning but he does not think Australia's risk level from bird flu will rise.

Professor John Horvath says it makes no difference if the deaths occur in Thailand, Vietnam or Indonesia because air travel makes everything close.

"The figures people have been talking about are that, there is a small but realistic chance sometime in the next year or two that we could have an epidemic or pandemic," he said.

"The figures that have been bandied around are 10 per cent." (OptusNet)

Oh, ten percent. No problem (except that he pulled the number out of his @ss, which is apparently where his head is also located). I'll grant the dumb sh%t this much: not much is changed by the Indonesian discovery (which was no a surprise). But it does make a difference whether a nation's health authority gives notice and license to the medical community, the business community, the public sector and everyone else, that this is a freight train coming down the tracks.

I expect that Dr. Horvath knows this, and like the US's CDC, is scared to death of the potential. But like CDC, if he doesn't start to say it, we won't get any substantive attention or action out of local and state health departments and officials who have so many other competing needs. Unless responsible officials make the decision to ramp up the priority of a pandemic threat, we will lose further precious time to prepare.

posted by Revere
http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/
__________________

 

[Martin]

continued
Page 6

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=159426