An Economist's View On Avian Flu (not optimistic)

[Anjou]

Here is an article on avian flu, as seen by economist Sherry Cooper, who has a pretty notable standing and background:

http://www.sherrycooper.com/article.php3?article=sr20050812

She was mentioned in this article on an avian flu thread (if you're looking for background).

Excerpt from her piece:

...have concluded that the economic and societal effects of even a moderate pandemic are so severe that businesses and consumers should join the medical and scientific community in creating a crisis prevention and management plan...​

And from the full pdf: http://www.sherrycooper.com/documents/avian_flu.pdf

...The bottom line is that a
pandemic, even one meaningfully less virulent than the 1918 Influenza
breakout (discussed earlier by Don Coxe), would have hugely disruptive
effects. Depending on its length and severity, its economic impact could
be comparable, at least for a short time, to the Great Depression of the
1930s...
In a world of just-in-time inventory management for material inputs,
finished goods and labor, disruption at the ports, airports, borders and
rail lines would quickly lead to empty shelves. Health care services, vaccines
and antibiotics, masks and other protective materials would be in
short supply regardless of price. Every sector and every business in every
country would be affected.
Food chains and supplies would be disrupted as people in panic shift
from animal foods to a more vegetarian diet (think of what BSE did to
beef consumption)...​

(She goes on from there...)

 

[The Flying Dutchman]

-Skin this one pard - while I go find ya another one...

This does not sound too good for either lives - or portfollios either...


<B><center>August 16, 2005 - 17:24
<font size=+1 color=red>Flu pandemic could trigger second Great Depression, brokerage warns clients</font>
<A href="http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/politics/news/shownews.jsp?content=n081655A">Macleans.ca</A>
TORONTO (CP) - A major Canadian brokerage firm has added its voice to those warning of the potential global impact of an influenza pandemic, suggesting it could trigger a crisis similar to that of the Great Depression.</B></center>
Real estate values would be slashed, bankruptcies would soar and the insurance industry would be decimated, a newly released investor guide on avian influenza warns clients of BMO Nesbitt Burns.

"It's quite analogous to the Great Depression in many ways, although obviously caused by very different reasons," co-author Sherry Cooper, chief economist of the firm and executive vice-president of the BMO Financial Group, said in an interview Tuesday.

"We won't have 30-per-cent unemployment because frankly, many people will die. And there will be excess demand for labour and yet, at the same time, it will absolutely crunch the economy worldwide."

A leading voice for pandemic preparedness said the report is evidence the financial and business sectors - which have been slow to twig to the implications of a flu pandemic - are finally realizing why public health and infectious disease experts have been sounding the alarm.

"I think that this particular report really signifies the first time that anyone from within the financial world, when looking at this issue, kind of had one of those 'Oh my God' moments," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"The financial world is finally waking up to the fact that this could be the boulder in the gear of the global economy," he said, suggesting a pandemic could trigger an implosion of international trade unlike anything seen in modern history.

"All the other catastrophes we've had in the world in recent years at the very most put screen doors on our borders. This would seal shut a six-inch steel door," Osterholm said.

Cooper, a highly influential figure in the Canadian financial sector, wrote the report with Donald Coxe, a global portfolio strategist for BMO Financial Group.

They warn investors the economic fallout out of a pandemic would inflict pain across sectors and around the globe.

Airlines would be grounded, transport of goods would cease, the tourism and hospitality sectors would evaporate and the impact on exports would be devastating, Cooper wrote.

"This would trigger foreclosures and bankruptcies, credit restrictions and financial panic," she warned, suggesting investors reduce debt and risk in their portfolios to be on the safe side.

The World Health Organization and public health leaders have been warning for some time that the world may be on the verge of a pandemic, the first since 1968. Adding considerably to their concern is the fact that the strain they fear will trigger a pandemic, the H5N1 avian flu ravaging poultry flocks of Southeast Asia, is highly virulent.

Even if a pandemic were mild, it is estimated that about a third of the world's population would fall sick over a period of months and millions would die. If the strain is virulent, the toll could mount to scores of millions of deaths, over a period of only 18 to 24 months.

Cooper reminded investors of the economic devastation SARS wreaked on affected cities or countries, including Toronto. But even with that fresh experience to draw from, she admitted it was hard to envisage how widespread the implications of a flu pandemic might be.

"It is a big, big issue. I mean, it's almost imponderable," she said. "I have to admit: the more research I did, the more frightened I became."

Still, she urged investors to embrace prudence, not succumb to panic.

"We wouldn't want everyone to go running out and dump all their investments and bury cash in their mattresses, because it would only accelerate the crisis - at least the financial crisis. But I don't believe people would do that anyway," Cooper said.

 

[horse and hammer]

The longer pdf, 37 pages, is a good read. Good overview of the facts and also alot of the financial implications based on a comparison to what happened financially with the SARS virus in Toronto. Factual and not crazy sounding, but still pretty scary.

 

[Dusty Lady]

Pandemic + 100'of Dead Microbiologists + Oil Shortages/Outrageous Prices + restricted travel=

Feds Excuse for a tanked economy.

"It's not our fault, its the flu, oil, blah, blah, blah".