CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

northern watch

TB Fanatic
zerohedge‏ @zerohedge 60s60 seconds ago

China Futures Crash, Oil & Yuan Plunge As CoV-Contagion Spreads

4p59GMlt
 

EMICT

Veteran Member
Im pretty sure these comments were made by medical professionals but I can’t remember who. That’s why I posted my questions.
Bev, there is no benefit to alter one's medical guidance and pharmacological regiment from their own MD to prepare for something that hasn't even come close to being a pandemic here (not saying it isn't coming). When the time comes to possibly alter medication being taken my suggestion would be talk to your doctor, not an internet 'expert'.
 

rlm1966

Veteran Member
Likely to increase Chinese tourism, at least until they are barred from leaving or entry.




Which is likely plenty, if you get my meaning.



Because the H2H recipients haven't presented at a Hospital yet? It is supposed to take up to 14 days, perhaps longer, until symptoms...





Sh**.

Although, completely expected.




There will be limitations on what they can do, and what data they have, and how many investigators they can get involved. This situation is in serious danger of getting out of hand...
I think, based on Chinese actions that this situation is already completely out of hand.
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Currently shows only 4 deaths out of over 1,000 cases outside of the originating province. Dramatically lower death rate outside of the originating province.

That's kind of interesting.

yet. It takes time to go through the process either return to health or not, and we really don't know how many uncomplicated (i.e. not worthy of going to the hospital) cases there are.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
An incurable virus, which can't be quarantined or identified, and results in death

that would solve any problem you have with population
the economy is gonna suck balls
 

pinkelsteinsmom

Veteran Member
Re: Pneumonia Vaccine

The vaccine is for bacterial pneumonia. It will not prevent viral pneumonia.
Thank you I didn't know that. On a side note, I had a family member in MD Anderson and she had viral pneumonia. The doctor spoke to me in the hall and told me that they had nothing to treat Viral pneumonia. He told me to buy echinacea/goldenseal 380MG and give it to my family member twice a day, it will dry out the lungs. He said if you tell anyone I told you that, you're a liar.

We also gave it for years to my Mom who was bedridden in a nursing home, she never got pneumonia. I realize this is something different we are dealing with, but we deal with it as best we can.

Regarding the 5 million flying out of Wuhan. I don't remember where I saw or read it but it was someone that lived in China. They also said that Xi and the royal rulers have relocated to an Island.
 

Squid

Veteran Member
In the FWIW on trying to update masks. For N95 the N stands for not resistant to oil. I do believe many use electrostatic charge to help trap particulates and trying to add stuff especially fluids may degrade the charge to trap particulate.
 

Seeker22

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Mexico knew about cases on the 22nd- note the date on the article. They are also not very forthcoming with any good useful information.

Mexico Confirms 2 Probable Cases Of Coronavirus Tuesday
THECOUNT.COM "ALWAYS OPEN! Since 2005!" - January 22, 2020

MEXICO CITY, MX. (THECOUNT) — Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is reporting two probable cases of coronavirus in the country.
One of them has already been ruled out and the other is under observation.

“There is already identification of two cases, one already ruled out and one in Tamaulipas that is under observation.”

During his morning press conference in the National Palace, President López Obrador said that the instruction to the population is to be aware and aware of the alerts of the Health sector . The other case was not specified by President López Obrador, reports ELUniversal.



Geo quick facts: Mexico City is the densely populated, high-altitude capital of Mexico. It’s known for its Templo Mayor (a 13th-century Aztec temple), the baroque Catedral Metropolitana de México of the Spanish conquistadors and the Palacio Nacional, which houses historic murals by Diego Rivera. All of these are situated in and around the Plaza de la Constitución, the massive main square also known as the Zócalo – wikipedia.

 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Lookner is on live now on Agenda Free tv on Youtube streaming. He just said Beijing is officially extending the Lunar New Year holiday till Feb 8th and for folks to remain home, not go back to work. I will be adding some stuff to this post in a minute.

This is actually good news, I think.
 

pinkelsteinsmom

Veteran Member
5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into "More Transmissable" Form


Over the weekend, there were numerous media reports published in hopes of easing fears that the coronavirus spread was uncontained, and informing the general public just how seriously China takes its quarantine of no less than 17 cities and roughly 60 million people. Take this report from AFP, according to which Police at a roadblock on the outskirts of Wuhan turned away cars trying to leave the virus-stricken epicenter on Saturday, as other anxious residents trapped inside spent the Lunar New Year stocking up on masks and medical supplies.


"Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others" AFP writes adding that its reporters saw "a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20 kilometres (12 miles) east of the city centre on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around."


The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.


"Nobody can leave," a policeman told AFP.




Yet, but... there is just one problem: the much needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan's mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday. As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan's residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.


As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China.


Due to the Chinese Lunar New Year and the #WuhanCoronavirus, more than 5 million people left Wuhan and 9 million people remain in the city which is under lockdown: Wuhan mayor pic.twitter.com/hi2NwsHmou
— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) January 26, 2020

Meanwhile, in Chinese health officials warned the virus’ ability to spread was getting stronger, and in the worst possible news for China, Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak had become especially complicated, after it was discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).





In other words, as many as tens if not hundreds of thousands of Coronavirus carriers quietly fled, and may have infected as many as 3-4 other people each, depending on the R0 of the virus.


“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days. “Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.


As for the piece de resistance, Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible: "There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult."


Even China's authorities sounds like they are giving up: Li Bin, deputy minister of the NHC said the authorities that the severe measures they had taken to control the spread of the virus – such as issuing travel bans and locking down cities – would at least delay the peak and “buy time to combat the next stage of the outbreak”, according to SCMP.


Yes, China is already bracing for "the next stage of the outbreak."

To help tackle the epidemic, which has closed off 17 cities, Ma said that 2,360 military and civilian doctors and nurses had been sent to Wuhan, the city in which the outbreak was first detected at the end of last month. As the pressure has mounted on the city’s hospitals, the medical system has moved ever closer to collapse.


Many people who developed feverish symptoms were turned away by hospitals earlier in the week because there were not enough beds, local residents said earlier. Medical practitioners are also running seriously short of protective kits and are being forced to recycle goggles and masks. Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.


Wang Jiangping, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, said China had the capacity to produce a maximum of 30,000 protective outfits per day, but that was less than a third of what was needed in Hubei.


Meanwhile, the hunt for the real source of the pandemic continues. China imposed a nationwide ban on wildlife trade on Sunday, as the outbreak was originally suspecteded to have originated at a seafood market in Wuhan, which also sold wild animals. However, a research paper published by medical journal The Lancet on Saturday said the first confirmed case of the viral infection was a person who had not been to that market.


Which begs the question we asked on Saturday: Did China Steal Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It?

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Oil prices skid two percent, extending slide as China virus spreads
January 26, 2020 / 8:46 PM / in 2 minutes

TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil prices slumped a further 2% to multi-month lows on Monday as the rising number of cases of the new China virus and city lockdowns deepened concerns about demand for crude, even as Saudi Arabia’s energy minister sought to calm the market.

Brent crude LCOc1 fell by $1.12 a barrel, or 1.9%, to $59.57 by 0113 GMT, having earlier dropped to $58.68, the lowest since late October. U.S. crude CLc1 slipped by $1.14, or 2.1%, to $53.05, having earlier eased to $52.15, the lowest since early October.

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud said on Monday he was watching developments closely in China and said he felt confident that the new virus would be contained.

Markets are being “primarily driven by psychological factors and extremely negative expectations adopted by some market participants despite its very limited impact on global oil demand,” he said.

With the coronavirus’s ability to spread getting stronger most financial markets are being hit, although many are closed in Asia due to the Lunar New Year holidays. [MKTS/GLOB]

Reporting by Aaron Sheldrick; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell

Oil prices skid two percent, extending slide as China virus spreads
 

MountainBiker

Veteran Member
Many of the Chinese elite have homes in NYC, LA, London, Vancouver and so forth. I suspect many of them have already headed out to those homes and are bringing as much of their extended families with them as they can.
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into "More Transmissable" Form


Over the weekend, there were numerous media reports published in hopes of easing fears that the coronavirus spread was uncontained, and informing the general public just how seriously China takes its quarantine of no less than 17 cities and roughly 60 million people. Take this report from AFP, according to which Police at a roadblock on the outskirts of Wuhan turned away cars trying to leave the virus-stricken epicenter on Saturday, as other anxious residents trapped inside spent the Lunar New Year stocking up on masks and medical supplies.


"Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others" AFP writes adding that its reporters saw "a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20 kilometres (12 miles) east of the city centre on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around."


The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.


"Nobody can leave," a policeman told AFP.




Yet, but... there is just one problem: the much needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan's mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday. As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan's residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.


As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China.




Meanwhile, in Chinese health officials warned the virus’ ability to spread was getting stronger, and in the worst possible news for China, Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak had become especially complicated, after it was discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).





In other words, as many as tens if not hundreds of thousands of Coronavirus carriers quietly fled, and may have infected as many as 3-4 other people each, depending on the R0 of the virus.


“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days. “Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.


As for the piece de resistance, Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible: "There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult."


Even China's authorities sounds like they are giving up: Li Bin, deputy minister of the NHC said the authorities that the severe measures they had taken to control the spread of the virus – such as issuing travel bans and locking down cities – would at least delay the peak and “buy time to combat the next stage of the outbreak”, according to SCMP.


Yes, China is already bracing for "the next stage of the outbreak."

To help tackle the epidemic, which has closed off 17 cities, Ma said that 2,360 military and civilian doctors and nurses had been sent to Wuhan, the city in which the outbreak was first detected at the end of last month. As the pressure has mounted on the city’s hospitals, the medical system has moved ever closer to collapse.


Many people who developed feverish symptoms were turned away by hospitals earlier in the week because there were not enough beds, local residents said earlier. Medical practitioners are also running seriously short of protective kits and are being forced to recycle goggles and masks. Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.


Wang Jiangping, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, said China had the capacity to produce a maximum of 30,000 protective outfits per day, but that was less than a third of what was needed in Hubei.


Meanwhile, the hunt for the real source of the pandemic continues. China imposed a nationwide ban on wildlife trade on Sunday, as the outbreak was originally suspecteded to have originated at a seafood market in Wuhan, which also sold wild animals. However, a research paper published by medical journal The Lancet on Saturday said the first confirmed case of the viral infection was a person who had not been to that market.


Which begs the question we asked on Saturday: Did China Steal Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It?


Thanks for the update. That would be 45% of Wuhan's declared population of 11 million, so that is a stupendous feat. Especially in 5 days...

Almost unbelievable.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
[QUOTE="vestige, post: 7557540, member: 3382]
Yes, China is already bracing for "the next stage of the outbreak."
What do it mean?
[/QUOTE]

They can't hide the true scope of it, any longer?
 

forpetesake

Senior Member
WHO chief says he is on way to China to confer on virus, boost response

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization’s director-general said late on Sunday he was on his way to Beijing to confer with Chinese officials and health experts about the coronavirus outbreak.

In a tweet, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he wanted to “strengthen our partnership” with China “in providing further protection against the outbreak”. Chinese authorities say it has infected 2,051 people and killed 56.

The Geneva-based WHO also said editors of major scientific journals had agreed to share any papers about the new coronavirus with it before publication, with authors’ consent, and that this would help inform its assessment and guidance.


Can I just ask why the h*** it took this long for WHO to finally go to China?
 

Swamp Wallaby

International Observer
Currently shows only 4 deaths out of over 1,000 cases outside of the originating province. Dramatically lower death rate outside of the originating province.

That's kind of interesting.

Give it time. The virus has been in Wuhan for much longer, so more cases have resolved - people have either died or been discharged. In areas it's recently spread to the vast majority of cases are active and we don't know the outcome yet. As many people have said, you can't crunch numbers on case fatality rate etc. unless you only look at resolved cases. Even then the numbers are going to be handwavy, as many cases will have slipped through the cracks.

I've been looking for some decent epidemiological statistics, but for the most part it's too early for anything but guesses. An article in The Lancet covers the first 41 cases identified (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)30183-5) and gives a CFR of 15%. That number is very suspect in terms of total CFR, as the only cases identified at that stage were those with serious symptoms - all 41 had bilateral pneumonia. Another article (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf) estimates that only 5.1% of cases have been identified. So there are a tonne of people out there with milder symptoms who haven't needed to be hospitalized, or haven't needed to be hospitalized yet, or who were seriously ill but were misdiagnosed. We don't know how many fall into each category right now, so can't do much with that figure except acknowledge that many of those in the first two categories are probably infectious and spreading the virus around.

I crunched some numbers on the estimates the US CDC puts out regarding seasonal influenza over the 2010-2017 period (available here: Burden of Influenza ) They reckon:

- only about half (average 46.4%) of people who have the flu are sick enough (or need medical certificates badly enough) to see a doctor.
- of those who see a doctor, about 3 in 100 (3.25%) are sick enough to be hospitalised.
- among those who are hospitalised - and this is where we can very roughly equate it to the first 41 cases in Wuhan - the CFR is 9.17%; 917 of every 10,000 people hospitalised for flu die. However because so many people have milder symptoms and don't end up in hospital, the true CFR is more like 0.14%, ie. 14 in 10,000 people who catch the flu will die. Big difference.

So inasmuch as we can relate the handwavy figures out of Wuhan to seasonal influenza in the US (ie. not well at all, statistically speaking), the CFR of hospitalised cases seems to be only about 63% higher; 15% as opposed to 9.17%. (Which, you know, isn't great, but isn't an order of magnitude either.) Even that's probably an exaggeration, as there were probably quite a few people hospitalised with coronavirus who weren't tested. Bear in mind that this is a very rough comparison. There are a LOT of factors we can't account for or even estimate, there's probably a degree of obfuscation happening due to government interference at the source, and that 41-person sample size is still pretty small. Right now, any statistical analyses are just educated guesses.

The real problem with this virus at the moment seems to be the R0, the rate of spread, which even at best case scenario is estimated to be twice the rate of seasonal flu.

Disclaimer: not a doctor, epidemiologist, or even a statistician! Anyone who knows better, feel free to correct me. :spns:
 
Last edited:

northern watch

TB Fanatic
World Health Organization (WHO)‏Verified account @WHO 2h2 hours ago

WHO is working with networks of specialists to analyze 2019-nCoV full genome sequences as they become available. We have not received evidence that the virus has changed. We await further information from
1f1e8-1f1f3.png
officials.
 

2DEES

Inactive
I read an interesting article from Dave Hodges. He stated that the Coronavirus was a cover for 2 other bio weapons dumped into the U.S.. They being Ebola and Pneumonic Plague. Could be the Chinese people are very smart. Look what they created in the past- gun powder,fireworks,the abacus, and even pizza. Could be?? I discovered that there are 2 cases of Ebola, in of all places-Iceland. Probably put there buy the international bankers because they refused their loans and I believe even tried and jailed those responsible.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
AFP news agency‏Verified account @AFP 23m23 minutes ago

VIDEO: Proposed virus quarantine building firebombed as nearby residents protest in Hong Kong. The city has declared the virus an "emergency" and the government is facing calls from some medical experts and politicians to close the border with the mainland
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into "More Transmissable" Form

Sounds like that damn Crichton story The Andromeda Strain. The virus did not mutate into a more transmissable form, it is being selected for transmissability. It's mutating all the freaking time.
 

rafter

Since 1999
Can't believe I finally got caught up on this thread. I have been emailing different posts to friends to keep them up to date.

On a side note at church today they spoke of praying for the impeachment crap in DC to end and for God to stop the coming pandemic that could kill millions. Most of the congregation had the deer in the headlights look. I was glad that there are some "get it's" in the church and it may have opened some eyes to check out what is going on. This is a cowboy church with about 200 present.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
has anyone heard anything about that 5 day hospital? they should be showing all that fantastic work that is being done so fast. even if it was a tent city, should be something up by now
There were pictures posted earlier. BW commented exactly what I thought when I saw it... it's just south of Wuhan, in Potemkin, China...

Summerthyme
 

2DEES

Inactive
Bev, there is no benefit to alter one's medical guidance and pharmacological regiment from their own MD to prepare for something that hasn't even come close to being a pandemic here (not saying it isn't coming). When the time comes to possibly alter medication being taken my suggestion would be talk to your doctor, not an internet 'expert'.
All my articles came from M.D.s who wrote news letters. If you have a problem contact them. The medical and pharmaceutical professions are interested in research and treatment. That's because their is no MONEY in cures!
 

Capt. Eddie

Veteran Member
Question: If there is no in the field test for this virus (all the samples have to be sent to the CDC in Atlanta to be verified is my understanding) and it takes at least a day to get the results apparently (I assume they are sequencing each sample) how is China testing 769 samples a day? "769 new cases confirmed" so that's at least 769 samples plus any negatives. I don't know crap about gene sequencing, I'm a boat captain and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but if it takes the US CDC a full day plus to do one sample how are the Chinese cranking through 1000 plus a day.
 
Top