Bubble Head
Has No Life - Lives on TB
We were in a Walmart near two weeks ago. A lady picked up a bunch of asparagus and sneezed into it. She then put it back. We left immediately.
CORONA Main Coronavirus thread
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northern watch
TB Fanatic
Vincent LeeVerified account @Rover829 48s48 seconds ago
Reuters: CHINA'S HUBEI PROVINCE SAYS 76 DEAD, 1423 CASES IN NEW CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK AS OF END OF JAN 26 - STATEMENT
Reuters: CHINA'S HUBEI PROVINCE SAYS 76 DEAD, 1423 CASES IN NEW CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK AS OF END OF JAN 26 - STATEMENT
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I get 3% not 30
Warm Wisconsin
Easy as 3.141592653589..
To clarify the CDC said they would track/trace all people within 2 meters of that passenger and all airline employees.
Jubilee on Earth
Veteran Member
It seems to me that there are more and more "soft" articles coming out today with estimates of tens if not hundreds of thousands infected.
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread
Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.
“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.
If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.
The pessimistic assessment comes from both researchers studying the dynamics of the outbreak — the rate at which cases are rising in and emerging from China — and infectious diseases experts who are parsing the first published studies describing cases to see if public health tools such as isolation and quarantine could as effective in this outbreak as they were in the 2003 SARS epidemic.
And the warnings come as the United States reported over the weekend finding three more cases, the country’s third, fourth, and fifth. Two were diagnosed in California. One is a traveler from Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have started, who was diagnosed in Orange County. The other is someone who visited Wuhan who was diagnosed in Los Angeles County. The fifth case was diagnosed in Arizona and is a student at Arizona State University; the person had also traveled to Wuhan.
Confirmed infections within China climbed to nearly 2,750 and the death toll rose to 80.
China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, warned Sunday that the virus seems to be becoming more transmissible and the country — which has taken unprecedentedly draconian steps to control the virus — was entering a “crucial stage.”
China’s actions — which include shutting off flights and trains from some affected cities and effectively putting tens of millions of people into quarantine — may not be enough to stop the virus, experts said.
“Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.
There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced Sunday it is donating $10 million to the response to the virus. Half the money will be given to Chinese groups to help them in containment efforts. The other half will be given to the African Center for Disease Control to fund its efforts to help African countries prepare to have to cope with the new infection.
Also on Sunday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted that he is traveling to Beijing to meet with Chinese authorities to offer support and to learn more about the outbreak.
The WHO so far has not declared the outbreak a global health emergency, though Tedros, as he is know, has said the spread of the new virus is a crisis for China and a risk to countries beyond it. The WHO declined to label the outbreak a global health emergency of international concern on the advice of a panel of experts who met Wednesday and Thursday, though those experts were split on whether a PHEIC should be declared.
More at: Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say - STAT
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread
Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.
“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.
If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.
The pessimistic assessment comes from both researchers studying the dynamics of the outbreak — the rate at which cases are rising in and emerging from China — and infectious diseases experts who are parsing the first published studies describing cases to see if public health tools such as isolation and quarantine could as effective in this outbreak as they were in the 2003 SARS epidemic.
And the warnings come as the United States reported over the weekend finding three more cases, the country’s third, fourth, and fifth. Two were diagnosed in California. One is a traveler from Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have started, who was diagnosed in Orange County. The other is someone who visited Wuhan who was diagnosed in Los Angeles County. The fifth case was diagnosed in Arizona and is a student at Arizona State University; the person had also traveled to Wuhan.
Confirmed infections within China climbed to nearly 2,750 and the death toll rose to 80.
China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, warned Sunday that the virus seems to be becoming more transmissible and the country — which has taken unprecedentedly draconian steps to control the virus — was entering a “crucial stage.”
China’s actions — which include shutting off flights and trains from some affected cities and effectively putting tens of millions of people into quarantine — may not be enough to stop the virus, experts said.
“Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.
There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced Sunday it is donating $10 million to the response to the virus. Half the money will be given to Chinese groups to help them in containment efforts. The other half will be given to the African Center for Disease Control to fund its efforts to help African countries prepare to have to cope with the new infection.
Also on Sunday, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted that he is traveling to Beijing to meet with Chinese authorities to offer support and to learn more about the outbreak.
The WHO so far has not declared the outbreak a global health emergency, though Tedros, as he is know, has said the spread of the new virus is a crisis for China and a risk to countries beyond it. The WHO declined to label the outbreak a global health emergency of international concern on the advice of a panel of experts who met Wednesday and Thursday, though those experts were split on whether a PHEIC should be declared.
More at: Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say - STAT
The virus has been in the US
Airline travel restrictions should take care of themselves in short order
Capt. Eddie
Veteran Member
Ah, that would be 3%.... 85 ÷ 2850 = .0298 = 2.98%
David Nettleton
Veteran Member
For what it's worth. My father told me a story about his father who fought or spent most of their time looking for Pancho Villa very shortly after WWI, and under Gen. Jack Pershing. Spanish flu was rampant among the troops there in the southern Arizona border area. My grandfather was assigned to assist a medical doctor at a hospital that treated flu patients. Most sick soldiers were prescribed an iced (as cold as they could get the water)bath to reduce fever and profuse sweating. He and the doctor noticed that almost all those who got the iced bath died within hours, yet many of those who didn't get the cold bath treatment survived longer and the only survivors never got the treatment. After some time and the flu began to slow down the doctor talked about what they had been through the past several weeks and the cold baths to my grandfather and said, "Guy, I wonder how many men we killed by putting them in those ice water tubs." There is a reason for a fever.
Binkerthebear
Veteran Member
Good point. I suppose this: TPTB are suggesting to the public that they have it all contained, ie. all US cases have recently come from China and, by some miracle, these infected people have not transmitted the virus to anyone else here in the US. I guess it’s possible but does seem very unlikely.
DuckandCover
Proud Sheeple
Currently shows only 4 deaths out of over 1,000 cases outside of the originating province. Dramatically lower death rate outside of the originating province.
That's kind of interesting.
That's kind of interesting.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
TeslaCharts @TESLAcharts 10m10 minutes ago
TeslaCharts Retweeted ABC News
But that might impact stock prices
ABC NewsVerified account @ABC 7h7 hours ago
NEW: The Trump administration is being urged to declare a formal public health emergency after the third case of the deadly coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in California.
10:14 AM - 26 Jan 2020
TeslaCharts Retweeted ABC News
But that might impact stock prices
ABC NewsVerified account @ABC 7h7 hours ago
NEW: The Trump administration is being urged to declare a formal public health emergency after the third case of the deadly coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in California.
10:14 AM - 26 Jan 2020
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Is 5 million flying out of Wuhan even physically possible? I have serious doubts there's that many planes and runway space to make that happen in 5 days. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Regarding the pneumonia vaccine, keep in mind that pneumonia is a symptom which may be caused by multiple factors, and the vaccine is not for the Novel Corona Virus, but for a bacteriological infection:
Vaccines for Pneumococcal | CDC
Vaccination is recommended for all babies, children, older adults, and people at increased risk.
www.cdc.gov
Once they make the ruling that transmission can't be controlled, the quarantine will be lifted and we will simply have to live with another human virus like the flu that comes around every year with a new mutation.
Remember. What don't kill ya, makes you stronger.
Remember too. Diversity is good = eat a bat
Remember. What don't kill ya, makes you stronger.
Remember too. Diversity is good = eat a bat
Last edited:
northern watch
TB Fanatic
The Wall Street JournalVerified account @WSJ 3h3 hours ago
Roughly 100 people in the U.S. have been investigated for coronavirus after showing potential symptoms. Five of those were confirmed positive.
Roughly 100 people in the U.S. have been investigated for coronavirus after showing potential symptoms. Five of those were confirmed positive.
homecanner1
Veteran Member
Lookner is on live now on Agenda Free tv on Youtube streaming. He just said Beijing is officially extending the Lunar New Year holiday till Feb 8th and for folks to remain home, not go back to work. I will be adding some stuff to this post in a minute.
Okay I am still a few pages behind to catch up but this is my summary of the crisis so far, as I understand sequence of events
They keep saying 'the seafood market' in Wuhan was not the source but that could be poor translation or obtuse language. The fish market itself may not have been the original source but some infected lab carcasses were introduced to the market as viable meat and sold to the populace. Wuhan itself is certainly ground zero for this global catastrophe, that is not disputed.
The coronavirus patent was for a Gamma, not a Beta
Alpha- and Betacoronaviruses mainly infect bats <--------- but they ALSO infect other species like humans, camels, and rabbits. Beta-CoVs that have caused epidemics in humans generally induce fever and respiratory symptoms. They include:
Genus Gammacoronavirus; genetically very similar coronaviruses cause disease in turkeys, guinea fowl and pheasants and is Avian. While the alpha and beta genera are derived from the BAT <----- gene pool, the gamma and delta genera are derived from the avian and pig gene pools.
At this point, are we all clear that Bats carry virus, they live in dark, moist environments, they feed on mosquitos full of blood and while nesting in trees, eat rotted fruit, sugars that feed these diseases. They are not and never will be appropriate food for mankind to eat no matter what creepy tidepod food challenge hipsters think is cool
Paul Joseph Watson on batsoup consumption
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bUyWhAmKExM
Re the Vietnamese human to human transmission, the official WHO doc that Dr. Niman used to make his statement that the Vietnamese man did "not" travel to China but was infected by his father upon his return to Vietnam is in their link
"...Of these 23 confirmed cases, 21 had travel history to Wuhan City, China; one case in Australia had direct contact with a confirmed case from Wuhan while in China; and one confirmed case in Viet Nam had NO travel history to any part of China as mentioned in situation report published on 24 January. According to preliminary investigations, this constitutes an instance of human to human transmission within a family..."
no travel history to China = human to human transmission per their own words
Monday night on Coast to Coast, they will be devoting the first hour to the topic, I would hope George will have sense to cancel the 2nd hour guest and just devote the whole program so his 21 million listeners can get up to speed.
,fit(1200,675),quality(65))
,contain(32,32),quality(65))
www.coasttocoastam.com
First half: Charles B. Simone, M.MS, M.D. is one of the few individuals in the world with formal training in medical oncology, radiation oncology and immunology, with expertise in nutrition, cancer prevention, and cancer detection. He will discus the latest developments in the coronavirus worldwide, how the vaccinations for viruses work, or don't work as well as his latest work tracking
re the photograph of the burial pit Japan vs China. I am leaning that was swine cholera control being done in Japan too
because the pits were LIMED and the carcasses were BAGGED.
the Chinese were burning them alive and then burying them in dirt. We all decried this when we saw it here at the time, same as we wondered at the Pope slapping the Chinese woman's hand away. Those images make much more sense in hindsight now.
this is disturbing, you are forewarned if you have not seen it already but this was China's solution to the pig cholera as compared to Japan.
www.kinderworld.org
if you have the stomach, you might want to look at the search term HOGWOOD on youtube, the 16,000 hog factory farm in the UK. It is beyond horrifying what we are doing with farming practices and these diseases manifesting in the livestock
Imagine what China's hog farm sanitation and breeding procedures must be like compared to modern Britain.
One thing must come out of this crisis, and that is China must change their animal husbandry and begin modern sanitation and butcher shops with actual glass display cases and gloved staff. Its 2020, not 1120 and medieval squatting on the concrete to hack into ducklings, piglets and puppies crammed into crates to sell streetside on tables is Barbaric filth.
My mother, brother and myself all got the Hong Kong Flu back in 68, miserable sick. My brother was still a toddler, drinking milk and developed a lifelong lactose intolerance as a result of that infection. I was plagued with earaches and asthma. It scarred lungs with lesions etc. All of these influenzas originate from overcrowded and dirty markets with sketchy meat for sale. Live hogs, chickens, ducks and fish for human consumption in close proximity to pedestrian foot traffic in open air abattoirs was a recipe for a feudal era disaster waiting to happen. It appears to be here now. It will be a very expensive lesson for humanity to learn the hard way to treat our food with more respect. God help the west coast squatters as this will move like wildfire from tent to tent. That will likely all end up condemned and bulldozed as human health contamination risk from rats, feces, opioid needles. We will all pay for that calamitous decision to pander to squalor out of pity.
and for the love of God almighty, China should not be raising our hogmeat or fishfarming our food. Let's rebuild our farm industry properly and raise our livestock on our soil for our people's consumption with USDA and FDA standard protocol
Okay I am still a few pages behind to catch up but this is my summary of the crisis so far, as I understand sequence of events
They keep saying 'the seafood market' in Wuhan was not the source but that could be poor translation or obtuse language. The fish market itself may not have been the original source but some infected lab carcasses were introduced to the market as viable meat and sold to the populace. Wuhan itself is certainly ground zero for this global catastrophe, that is not disputed.
The coronavirus patent was for a Gamma, not a Beta
Alpha- and Betacoronaviruses mainly infect bats <--------- but they ALSO infect other species like humans, camels, and rabbits. Beta-CoVs that have caused epidemics in humans generally induce fever and respiratory symptoms. They include:
- SARS-CoV, SARS disease.
- MERS-CoV, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) disease.
- 2019-nCoV, 2019–20 outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
Genus Gammacoronavirus; genetically very similar coronaviruses cause disease in turkeys, guinea fowl and pheasants and is Avian. While the alpha and beta genera are derived from the BAT <----- gene pool, the gamma and delta genera are derived from the avian and pig gene pools.
At this point, are we all clear that Bats carry virus, they live in dark, moist environments, they feed on mosquitos full of blood and while nesting in trees, eat rotted fruit, sugars that feed these diseases. They are not and never will be appropriate food for mankind to eat no matter what creepy tidepod food challenge hipsters think is cool
Paul Joseph Watson on batsoup consumption
Re the Vietnamese human to human transmission, the official WHO doc that Dr. Niman used to make his statement that the Vietnamese man did "not" travel to China but was infected by his father upon his return to Vietnam is in their link
"...Of these 23 confirmed cases, 21 had travel history to Wuhan City, China; one case in Australia had direct contact with a confirmed case from Wuhan while in China; and one confirmed case in Viet Nam had NO travel history to any part of China as mentioned in situation report published on 24 January. According to preliminary investigations, this constitutes an instance of human to human transmission within a family..."
no travel history to China = human to human transmission per their own words
Monday night on Coast to Coast, they will be devoting the first hour to the topic, I would hope George will have sense to cancel the 2nd hour guest and just devote the whole program so his 21 million listeners can get up to speed.
Coronavirus & Big Pharma / Geoengineering Secrets | Coast to Coast AM
Charles B. Simone, M.D. addressed developments in the coronavirus spread. Followed by Dane Wigington on geoengineering and weather modification.
First half: Charles B. Simone, M.MS, M.D. is one of the few individuals in the world with formal training in medical oncology, radiation oncology and immunology, with expertise in nutrition, cancer prevention, and cancer detection. He will discus the latest developments in the coronavirus worldwide, how the vaccinations for viruses work, or don't work as well as his latest work tracking
re the photograph of the burial pit Japan vs China. I am leaning that was swine cholera control being done in Japan too
because the pits were LIMED and the carcasses were BAGGED.
the Chinese were burning them alive and then burying them in dirt. We all decried this when we saw it here at the time, same as we wondered at the Pope slapping the Chinese woman's hand away. Those images make much more sense in hindsight now.
this is disturbing, you are forewarned if you have not seen it already but this was China's solution to the pig cholera as compared to Japan.
Pigs Burned Alive in China: How Farms are Killing Pigs in China (Video)
Shocking new video shows how meat farms in China burn pigs alive. Watch how meat farms in china are killing pigs in mass graves.
www.kinderworld.org
if you have the stomach, you might want to look at the search term HOGWOOD on youtube, the 16,000 hog factory farm in the UK. It is beyond horrifying what we are doing with farming practices and these diseases manifesting in the livestock
Imagine what China's hog farm sanitation and breeding procedures must be like compared to modern Britain.
One thing must come out of this crisis, and that is China must change their animal husbandry and begin modern sanitation and butcher shops with actual glass display cases and gloved staff. Its 2020, not 1120 and medieval squatting on the concrete to hack into ducklings, piglets and puppies crammed into crates to sell streetside on tables is Barbaric filth.
My mother, brother and myself all got the Hong Kong Flu back in 68, miserable sick. My brother was still a toddler, drinking milk and developed a lifelong lactose intolerance as a result of that infection. I was plagued with earaches and asthma. It scarred lungs with lesions etc. All of these influenzas originate from overcrowded and dirty markets with sketchy meat for sale. Live hogs, chickens, ducks and fish for human consumption in close proximity to pedestrian foot traffic in open air abattoirs was a recipe for a feudal era disaster waiting to happen. It appears to be here now. It will be a very expensive lesson for humanity to learn the hard way to treat our food with more respect. God help the west coast squatters as this will move like wildfire from tent to tent. That will likely all end up condemned and bulldozed as human health contamination risk from rats, feces, opioid needles. We will all pay for that calamitous decision to pander to squalor out of pity.
and for the love of God almighty, China should not be raising our hogmeat or fishfarming our food. Let's rebuild our farm industry properly and raise our livestock on our soil for our people's consumption with USDA and FDA standard protocol
Last edited:
Tarryn
Senior Member
Posting this because the Guardian is mot usually one to go into woo territory. Woke yes, woo no.
Just wondering if someone already knows the numbers are bogus and are trying to get people ready.
Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian
Coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn
UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days
Sarah Boseley and Rowena Mason
Sun 26 Jan 2020 16.47 EST
About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.
Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”
Although no one has yet tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, Labour called on the government to reassure the public that the NHS could cope with an outbreak when it is already struggling with the winter flu season.
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said: “The NHS is currently under immense strain this winter with staff already working flat out and hospitals overcrowded. We need urgent reassurance from ministers they have a plan to ensure we have capacity in place to deal with coronavirus should we need to.”
Priti Patel, the home secretary, insisted on Sunday that the government was taking “all precautions”, despite criticism it had been slow off the mark to find and give information to the thousands of people in Britain who had flown back from Wuhan in recent weeks.
Prof Martin Dove, a British academic, said no one from the UK government had tried to contact him regarding the coronavirus outbreak despite recently returning home from working in Wuhan.
Others have said the UK authorities have been difficult to contact with the British embassy in Beijing shut on Friday and over the weekend, as well as Monday and Tuesday for the lunar new year. A Foreign Office spokesman said there would be some staff working despite the official closure and pointed to its 24-hour emergency assistance number.
There was also no clarity on Sunday over whether the government would evacuate the estimated 200 Brits trapped in Wuhan, with the Foreign Office advising against all travel to Hubei province but providing scant information on how to leave the affected areas. This is in contrast to France, the US and Japan, who are putting in place logistics to get their citizens out.
Patel said the government was “looking at all the options”, which could include airlifting UK citizens out of the worst-affected area.
So far there are around 40 cases outside China, including three each in the United States and France. All 56 deaths have occurred in China, mostly in people who were older and had underlying health problems that made it hard to fight off the virus.
The Department of Health and Social Care said on Sunday that 52 people had been cleared after testing in the UK and the “risk to the public remains low”.
But in spite of the rigorous containment measures China has taken, its ban on flights and the UK checks on travellers from China at Heathrow, experts say it is only a matter of time until there is a case in the UK, given the ease with which the new coronavirus is now believed to pass from one person to another – possibly transmitted by people with mild or even no symptoms at all.
Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.
My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”
Most of the cases that have been exported to other countries from China have been mild, he said. That could mean mild cases of disease spread more easily than severe, life-threatening cases, which sounds like good news. But on the other hand, it means it is possible there will be a reservoir of mild disease in the country that goes unnoticed and can spread until it affects somebody vulnerable because of underlying poor health, who becomes seriously ill.
“People looking for people with a travel history to China are not necessarily looking in their local population,” he said.
There is a lot still unknown, he explained. “We don’t have reports as yet as to the extent to which children are becoming infected, probably because of the bias towards severe cases.”
Unlike Sars, which made everyone who contracted the virus severely ill, the new virus appears to be able to slip under the radar, he said. Firstly, there are the many mild carriers, who will infect other people without necessarily being recognised. Secondly, there are reports from China of people who have infected others before they have experienced any symptoms.
Ferguson said it was possible this is not quite as it appears. It may be that the authorities have not actually identified the index case – the person who infected a group of people – making it look as though they picked up the virus from someone who had no symptoms.
But although only people with symptoms of illness spread Sars, scientists point to other diseases, such as influenza and some colds, that can be passed on by those who appear well. These viruses “are carried into the air during normal breathing and talking by the infected person”, said Prof Wendy Barclay of the department of infectious disease at Imperial College London.
“It would not be too surprising if the new coronavirus also does this. If this does prove to be the case then controlling the spread does become more of a challenge, and measures like airport screening are unlikely to stem the virus effectively.”
Just wondering if someone already knows the numbers are bogus and are trying to get people ready.
Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian
Coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn
UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days
Sarah Boseley and Rowena Mason
Sun 26 Jan 2020 16.47 EST
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About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.
Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”
Although no one has yet tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, Labour called on the government to reassure the public that the NHS could cope with an outbreak when it is already struggling with the winter flu season.
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said: “The NHS is currently under immense strain this winter with staff already working flat out and hospitals overcrowded. We need urgent reassurance from ministers they have a plan to ensure we have capacity in place to deal with coronavirus should we need to.”
Priti Patel, the home secretary, insisted on Sunday that the government was taking “all precautions”, despite criticism it had been slow off the mark to find and give information to the thousands of people in Britain who had flown back from Wuhan in recent weeks.
Prof Martin Dove, a British academic, said no one from the UK government had tried to contact him regarding the coronavirus outbreak despite recently returning home from working in Wuhan.
Others have said the UK authorities have been difficult to contact with the British embassy in Beijing shut on Friday and over the weekend, as well as Monday and Tuesday for the lunar new year. A Foreign Office spokesman said there would be some staff working despite the official closure and pointed to its 24-hour emergency assistance number.
There was also no clarity on Sunday over whether the government would evacuate the estimated 200 Brits trapped in Wuhan, with the Foreign Office advising against all travel to Hubei province but providing scant information on how to leave the affected areas. This is in contrast to France, the US and Japan, who are putting in place logistics to get their citizens out.
Patel said the government was “looking at all the options”, which could include airlifting UK citizens out of the worst-affected area.
So far there are around 40 cases outside China, including three each in the United States and France. All 56 deaths have occurred in China, mostly in people who were older and had underlying health problems that made it hard to fight off the virus.
The Department of Health and Social Care said on Sunday that 52 people had been cleared after testing in the UK and the “risk to the public remains low”.
But in spite of the rigorous containment measures China has taken, its ban on flights and the UK checks on travellers from China at Heathrow, experts say it is only a matter of time until there is a case in the UK, given the ease with which the new coronavirus is now believed to pass from one person to another – possibly transmitted by people with mild or even no symptoms at all.
Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.
My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”
Most of the cases that have been exported to other countries from China have been mild, he said. That could mean mild cases of disease spread more easily than severe, life-threatening cases, which sounds like good news. But on the other hand, it means it is possible there will be a reservoir of mild disease in the country that goes unnoticed and can spread until it affects somebody vulnerable because of underlying poor health, who becomes seriously ill.
“People looking for people with a travel history to China are not necessarily looking in their local population,” he said.
There is a lot still unknown, he explained. “We don’t have reports as yet as to the extent to which children are becoming infected, probably because of the bias towards severe cases.”
Unlike Sars, which made everyone who contracted the virus severely ill, the new virus appears to be able to slip under the radar, he said. Firstly, there are the many mild carriers, who will infect other people without necessarily being recognised. Secondly, there are reports from China of people who have infected others before they have experienced any symptoms.
Ferguson said it was possible this is not quite as it appears. It may be that the authorities have not actually identified the index case – the person who infected a group of people – making it look as though they picked up the virus from someone who had no symptoms.
But although only people with symptoms of illness spread Sars, scientists point to other diseases, such as influenza and some colds, that can be passed on by those who appear well. These viruses “are carried into the air during normal breathing and talking by the infected person”, said Prof Wendy Barclay of the department of infectious disease at Imperial College London.
“It would not be too surprising if the new coronavirus also does this. If this does prove to be the case then controlling the spread does become more of a challenge, and measures like airport screening are unlikely to stem the virus effectively.”
We can hope and pray but I ain’t bettin the farm on it just yet.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Vincent LeeVerified account @Rover829 now40 seconds ago
Reuters: A senior journalist at a Hubei newspaper run by the ruling Communist Party posted on Weibo on Friday that there should be an “immediate” change of leadership in Wuhan. That post was later removed.
Reuters: A senior journalist at a Hubei newspaper run by the ruling Communist Party posted on Weibo on Friday that there should be an “immediate” change of leadership in Wuhan. That post was later removed.
RNA virus 1-5 micron aerosol droplets from any cough can stay airborne and
viable for hours in cool/dry environment, like often found in airports or planes.
If you have not already, listen to virologist expert 32 min recent interview re
this type of virus and what can be expected as it inevitably mutates...
View: https://soundcloud.com/alertsusa/virologist-china-outbreak
Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane
bev
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Im pretty sure these comments were made by medical professionals but I can’t remember who. That’s why I posted my questions.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Helen BranswellVerified account @HelenBranswell 3h3 hours ago
There may already be 100,000 cases of#2019nCov in China, epidemiologist and modeler @neil_ferguson told the Guardian.
There may already be 100,000 cases of
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Helen BranswellVerified account @HelenBranswell 4h4 hours ago
China may not be able to stop#2019nCov, infectious diseases experts warn as they urge countries to prepare have to face the new coronavirus.
China may not be able to stop
I was going to bring this up at the end of the 78th page but I'm only on page 73. Yes it MAY help. The other item I was going to bring up was Pure Green 24 {32oz). This stuff is all natural,kills germs,will not effect pets, and if sprayed on children's toys.will not be harmful if they put the toy in their mouth. I don't think I want to test this last part. All this may increase the effectiveness of the mask. May save a lot of work for other types of construction. Tape could also be applied to the edges but I don't know how well that would hold up. Maybe some of the medical tapes might do better.
Tarryn
Senior Member
This is what China's English paper posted today. Comments are priceless.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1221568542501408770
Same thing happened to me, against community standards - so the censors are busy
EMICT
Veteran Member
Is it wrong to wish that this was a rad event instead of a bio event?
I wish I didn’t have to fly anymore either but unfortunately I am at the airport now waiting to fly to Seattle, Anchorage and on to the North Slope for my work hitch.
When we moved from Alaska I purposely left my Tacoma behind, just in case I ever needed to drive out and back to Montana in the event it was not possible or unsafe to fly home from the slope. I hope I wasn’t seeing the future.
I guess I will know in a couple weeks probly.
When we moved from Alaska I purposely left my Tacoma behind, just in case I ever needed to drive out and back to Montana in the event it was not possible or unsafe to fly home from the slope. I hope I wasn’t seeing the future.
I guess I will know in a couple weeks probly.
MountainBiker
Veteran Member
I don't think it is H2H confirmation so much but rather how efficiently is it being transmitted. That is a critical factor to which we're not going to get truthful answers from China.
EMICT
Veteran Member
If it were hemorrhagic fever you'd know. Instead of bodies lying in the street there would be puddles.
TxGal
Day by day
I've looked just about everywhere, KBTX.com is the local news for the Brazos Valley (includes CS and our county, among others). No word yet, DH believes they said results would be in tomorrow.
I thought it was one of the earliest, yet other states' results seem to be in faster. I have no idea why this one is taking so long.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Some Practical Questions About The Coronavirus Epidemic
by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Sunday, 01/26/2020 - 20:05
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned "black market" activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I've been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven't found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me, such as:
1. When public transportation is halted and commerce grinds to a halt as people avoid public places and gatherings, thousands of employees no longer go to work. Who pays their wages while the city is locked down? The employers? Then who compensates the employers, since their income has also gone to zero?
Does China have a universal unemployment insurance system that can quickly issue payments to all people who are no longer going to work and getting a paycheck from an employer?
What about the thousands of migrant workers who don't have regular employers? Who pays them? If they're technically not officially sanctioned residents of the city, they don't exist in government records.
2. If people idled by the lockdown are supposed to live off savings, what about all the marginal workers with few resources? What are they going to live on once their meager savings are gone?
3. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?
4. Unlike the developed West, many people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. If work has dried up and you're fearful of catching a potentially lethal virus, wouldn't it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?
Since people who caught the virus may not know they're a carrier, how will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?
5. The typical city has about a week's supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. If the lockdown runs longer than a few days, scarcities of essentials will ignite hoarding, and remaining supplies will be snapped up.
Since the city's residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. Every individual involved in this system is potentially exposed to the virus or is a potential asymptomatic carrier of the virus leaving the city.
These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn't possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel to other cities.
6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease--up to two weeks--and isolate all these individuals until they either develop the disease or pass through the crisis unharmed.
This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus, (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.
During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.
Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won't stop a contagion from spreading.
If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease--is this even possible in China now?
Please study the map below before claiming it's still possible.
7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus, how effective are these treatments, and do they require a physician to be administered? If the answers are: there are no effective targeted medical treatments for this virus, and doctors are not required to administer what is available, then why expose a scarce resource--physicians--to the disease since they really can't do much to halt it or heal the patients?
Isn't sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan more a PR move than anything else? And if it's basically a PR stunt to appear to be "doing something," doesn't that call the entire official response into question?
If there is no targeted treatment available, then the recovery of the patient is a function of their immune system. Building tent hospitals that are porous--healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.--will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won't do much to limit the contagion.
8. Are the travel bans on tours and other travel restriction measures 100%, in other words, not a single individual is being allowed in or out? If the travel restrictions are haphazard, then what's stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?
There are many other practical questions about the epidemic and China's response that aren't being addressed in the conventional media. While we don't know precisely how contagious and lethal the virus is at this point--and it could mutate into a more contagious and lethal variation within a carrier at any moment--we do know complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion.
We also know cities can't truly be isolated for longer than a few days, and we know people can't live without food, water, fuel, etc. and money to buy these essentials. We also know that restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned "black market" activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Some Practical Questions About The Coronavirus Epidemic
by Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge
Sunday, 01/26/2020 - 20:05
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned "black market" activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I've been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven't found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me, such as:
1. When public transportation is halted and commerce grinds to a halt as people avoid public places and gatherings, thousands of employees no longer go to work. Who pays their wages while the city is locked down? The employers? Then who compensates the employers, since their income has also gone to zero?
Does China have a universal unemployment insurance system that can quickly issue payments to all people who are no longer going to work and getting a paycheck from an employer?
What about the thousands of migrant workers who don't have regular employers? Who pays them? If they're technically not officially sanctioned residents of the city, they don't exist in government records.
2. If people idled by the lockdown are supposed to live off savings, what about all the marginal workers with few resources? What are they going to live on once their meager savings are gone?
3. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?
4. Unlike the developed West, many people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. If work has dried up and you're fearful of catching a potentially lethal virus, wouldn't it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?
Since people who caught the virus may not know they're a carrier, how will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?
5. The typical city has about a week's supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. If the lockdown runs longer than a few days, scarcities of essentials will ignite hoarding, and remaining supplies will be snapped up.
Since the city's residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. Every individual involved in this system is potentially exposed to the virus or is a potential asymptomatic carrier of the virus leaving the city.
These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn't possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel to other cities.
6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease--up to two weeks--and isolate all these individuals until they either develop the disease or pass through the crisis unharmed.
This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus, (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.
During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.
Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won't stop a contagion from spreading.
If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease--is this even possible in China now?
Please study the map below before claiming it's still possible.
7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus, how effective are these treatments, and do they require a physician to be administered? If the answers are: there are no effective targeted medical treatments for this virus, and doctors are not required to administer what is available, then why expose a scarce resource--physicians--to the disease since they really can't do much to halt it or heal the patients?
Isn't sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan more a PR move than anything else? And if it's basically a PR stunt to appear to be "doing something," doesn't that call the entire official response into question?
If there is no targeted treatment available, then the recovery of the patient is a function of their immune system. Building tent hospitals that are porous--healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.--will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won't do much to limit the contagion.
8. Are the travel bans on tours and other travel restriction measures 100%, in other words, not a single individual is being allowed in or out? If the travel restrictions are haphazard, then what's stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?
There are many other practical questions about the epidemic and China's response that aren't being addressed in the conventional media. While we don't know precisely how contagious and lethal the virus is at this point--and it could mutate into a more contagious and lethal variation within a carrier at any moment--we do know complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion.
We also know cities can't truly be isolated for longer than a few days, and we know people can't live without food, water, fuel, etc. and money to buy these essentials. We also know that restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned "black market" activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Some Practical Questions About The Coronavirus Epidemic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
巴丢草 BadiucaoVerified account @badiucao 3m3 minutes ago
video from Shantou，Guangdong province，people are panic and trying to get enough rice out of fear of city quarantine due to the outbreak of#wuhancorona #coronoavirus the city has earlier declared locking down but lately withdrawed. #ChinaCoronaVirus
video from Shantou，Guangdong province，people are panic and trying to get enough rice out of fear of city quarantine due to the outbreak of
bw
Fringe Ranger
Big picture thought: Chinese are going to flee Wuhan fast as they can, particularly when the perimeter is opened. They have seen their medical infrastructure collapse under the load, and they don't ever want to be in that position again. Some of them will know they are infected; some will suspect it; the rest want to play safe. So they want to get to wherever has the best medical infrastructure, which generally is the US or Europe.
If even a small portion of those actually ARE infected, the careless doctors and unprepared protocols in those new locations will be taken out. The remaining infrastructure will be loaded down, supplies will be exhausted, caregivers will be traumatized. It won't take a lot of plague victims to make this happen.
By the time US residents are falling ill, our medical resources will have been reduced to third-world status. We will be caring for our sick at home.
Something to think about.
If even a small portion of those actually ARE infected, the careless doctors and unprepared protocols in those new locations will be taken out. The remaining infrastructure will be loaded down, supplies will be exhausted, caregivers will be traumatized. It won't take a lot of plague victims to make this happen.
By the time US residents are falling ill, our medical resources will have been reduced to third-world status. We will be caring for our sick at home.
Something to think about.
Jubilee on Earth
Veteran Member
I mean, how in the world would they determine that? I think about all the times I flew. Even if someone was several rows away from me, I might have sat next to him in the terminal, or stood behind him as we lined up for boarding, or walked past him form some reason. Why wouldn't they keep tabs on everybody?
blackjeep
The end times are here.
Fixed it for you. The China numbers are completely fabricated and intentionally inaccurate.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Global TimesVerified account @globaltimesnews 33m33 minutes ago
#Wuhan is suspending customs entry and exit services in the epidemic-stricken city from Monday to Thursday, Hong Kong and Macao-related services also suspended: local authority
they used the word "meters" - it is European and you are required to simply believe
bw
Fringe Ranger
There are reports of heavy bleeding. Maybe different victims react differently.
Tristan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 3h3 hours ago
Just to put things into perspective: The Coronavirus epidemic has a likely huge impact on tourism from#China to the rest of the world, ADMISI's Ostwald says.
Likely to increase Chinese tourism, at least until they are barred from leaving or entry.
Which is likely plenty, if you get my meaning.
Because the H2H recipients haven't presented at a Hospital yet? It is supposed to take up to 14 days, perhaps longer, until symptoms...
Mexican health officials suspect coronavirus case in Reynosa
importer January 22, 2020
MGN Online
By Aurora Orozco, Staff writer
The Mexican government confirmed Wednesday there is a possible case of coronavirus in the state of Tamaulipas.
The Tamaulipas health secretary says a 57-year-old Reynosa man is being treated for symptoms of the virus.
“The man, who is a doctor at the Centro de Biologia Molecular in Reynosa, traveled to China in December to visit family and returned to Mexico in January. He first arrived in Mexico City,” according to a news release from Tamaulipas Health Secretary Gloria Molina Gambia.
On Monday the victim started getting sick and went to a government emergency facility to be checked.
Molina said after the man was examed, the health agency sent an international alert throughout Tamaulipas informing health officials of the suspected coronavirus case in Reynosa.
Molina said the patient is originally from China. She said they are communicating with his family to see if any of them have symptoms of the virus and that so far none of them have become ill.
The man remains in isolation at his home and continues to be tested. Tests are also being conducted on anyone he came into contact with since returning from China.
The latest test results are expected to be released tonight.
The virus has sickened hundreds in China and killed 17.
Chinese state media say the city of Wuhan is shutting down outbound flights and trains as the country battles the spread of the virus.
The official Xinhua News Agency said Thursday that the city also asked people not to leave Wuhan without specific reasons.
Mexican health officials suspect coronavirus case in Reynosa
Sh**.
Although, completely expected.
There will be limitations on what they can do, and what data they have, and how many investigators they can get involved. This situation is in serious danger of getting out of hand...